Copper vs. gold relative strength changes... and what that means for commodities into November.

Lots of recent research and market movement within the commodity space has come from precious metals. While the group is still putting on quite a show in 2025, the recent exhale has left much to be desired… or is perhaps just a pullback for an otherwise strong asset class. While this will certainly be a point to watch as we move into the second to last month of the year, we will take today’s pulse as an opportunity to focus specifically on an interesting relative strength development for the commodity space.

We have put together several research reports over the years comparing gold (or other precious metals for that matter) against copper. The idea being that gold is typically utilized as a safe haven of value during times of uncertainty, while copper (or other industrial metals) are used during times of economic expansion. This certainly won’t always be the case, but historically speaking it has been quite additive to focus on relative strength leaders between the two. To do so, we will utilize a 3.25% relative strength (RS) chart between representatives CPER & GLD. While there are a handful of headfakes over time, the overall signal history has been consistent. With action over the last few weeks, this chart reversed back up into X’s, showing a near-term preference for copper. Do keep in mind that GLD remains on a string of three consecutive buy signals (long-term strength) in this specific relationship and holds a fund score over 1.5 points better than CPER. All this to say, this is a relationship to watch and not necessarily act on quite yet.

This relationship isn’t the only one worth watching on the commodity front. While we won’t dive into any one specific relationship in more detail, we can utilize the continuous commodity matrix to focus in on where strength is shifting within the space. Below are the members of said matrix ranked by their total X count. You will notice that precious metals do not currently have a single representative within the top half of this matrix (remember, this is shorted by near-term strength) speaking to the magnitude of the recent downside participation. Other areas of recent strength include industrial metals and agriculture names.

All this to say, continue to monitor the space. While the argument that leadership within the commodities space has changed meaningfully doesn’t have staying power quite yet, further declines from precious metals could toss a wrench into the mix. Set alerts on notable relationships and keep an eye on the research report to be notified of changes as they occur.