Gold’s impressive run continued with Monday’s action as the precious metal rallied to a new all-time chart high at 3750, marking its fourth buy signal with a double top break at 3700. So far in September, Gold has added 7.80% to bring the commodity to up 42% on a year-to-date basis through Monday’s close (9/22), marking the best performance to this point in any given year since 1978.

With the recent rally, Gold has found itself in overbought territory forgoing three weeks now. For those not familiar with the Weekly Overbought/Oversold reading, measures how far above or below the current price is from the 10-week (50-day) moving average with ‘extreme’ territory being +/- 100% (+/- 3 standard deviations from the 10-week MA). Seeing any security maintain a Weekly OBOS of +100% overbought for three weeks or more is rare. In fact, going back to the beginning of daily pricing data in 1975, Gold has had only five other times the Weekly OBOS reading has sustained above 100% for three weeks or more – the longest of which being five weeks in May 1993.

Given this rarified air, the table below examines the forward returns of Gold (GC/) following these periods of sustained overbought positioning. Returns for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) are included for additional perspective. In the short to intermediate-term gold pulls back from the elevated levels, while longer-term returns a mixed. U.S. Equities tend to rebound following such a rally by gold in the short- to intermediate-term, but not in an overwhelming manner. Longer-term returns for SPX improve, suggesting that whatever drives gold to highs weighs on equities in the short-to-intermediate-term before seeing a resolution in the long-term.

With many of these dates occurring around inflationary periods, they provide a lens into the potential action that may follow in the coming weeks and months.  Given the extended position for gold, investors could see the commodity consolidate or pullback as the third quarter wraps. From there, investors will see what impact the path of interest rates in 2025 may have on inflationary pressures and gold prices.

Another day, another massive artificial intelligence investment. That was the story during trading on Monday that pushed major stock market indices to fresh highs. NVIDIA Corporation NVDA announced an investment in Open AI worth up to $100 billion on Monday, tied to AI infrastructure through data centers. This was not the first time the stock market has been pushed higher by an investment involving Open AI. There have been several other announcements in recent years where domestically traded companies interacted with Open AI, which has typically provided tailwinds for equity markets. Microsoft MSFT was one of the earliest major backers of Open AI, providing about $13 billion in funding over multiple investments dating back to 2019. We also saw Open AI sign a contract to purchase $300 billion in computing power from Oracle earlier this month. Broadcom AVGO benefited from a partnership with Open AI worth up to $10 billion to develop new custom AI chips. Tangential to the Open AI investments, we have Nvidia investing $5 billion in Intel INTC for joint development of CPUs for AI infrastructure.

With all the money flowing around AI investment, it can be hard to keep track of which companies are poised to benefit the most from the market response. One route is to go with a broad-based fund to provide diverse exposure to a basket of names. As the old saying goes, a rising tide lifts all boats. That has certainly been the case for the Global X Funds Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF AIQ, which carries a 5.77 fund score and is up over 28% year-to-date (through 9/22). More on this fund can be found in our September 3 report.

Others may be interested in individual exposure toward some of the names that have been in the news with major AI investments. Since the headlines around these individual names are constantly changing, it is important to stay abreast of their technical pictures. Today, we will review the current trend charts for NVDA, INTC, ORCL, AVGO, and MSFT, considering the recent investments.

The Chip Makers

 NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

NVDA has been at the center of the AI conversation for the past few years due to the best-in-class positioning of their semiconductor chips. The stock moved back to a buy signal Monday in the wake of their investment in Open AI, breaking a double top at $182 before peaking at $184. This ends a streak of two consecutive sell signals for the largest stock in the world. NVDA has a 4 for 5 TA rating after reversing into a column of Os against the semiconductor group index last week (9/18). Still, NVDA remains a firm technical footing and the recent consolidation has left the stock in a more normalized trading range with a weekly overbought/oversold (OBOS) reading of about 30% (through 9/22). The stock is at resistance from last month, and we would see further bullish confirmation with a potential spread triple top breakout at $186. Initial support can be seen at $170 and $166.

Intel Corporation (INTC)

Intel has lagged most other semiconductor companies throughout the past few years as the company specializes in CPUs, which has not been in demand as much as the GPUs needed to power the large language models. However, the investment from NVDA to Intel earlier this month took place through their common stock, outlining the desire to focus on specialized CPUs for the buildout of AI infrastructure. This led INTC to break a double top at $27, notching a second consecutive buy signal before continuing higher to $32. That breaks INTC out of a range it had maintained for over a year, putting the stock in a more desirable technical position. The stock now has a 5 for 5 TA rating and sits in the top half of the semiconductors sector RS matrix with a 43% year-to-date (YTD) gain (through 9/22). We saw INTC retract from an extended position Monday, reversing down into a column of Os at $29. This leaves the stock in an actionable position with a weekly OBOS reading south of 70%. Initial support can be seen at $23 with further support just below at $21, the current location of the bullish support line. Further overhead resistance is not seen until $37 from last July.

Broadcom Ltd (AVGO)

AVGO has seen a very consistent technical picture since moving back to a positive trend in April, giving nine consecutive buy signals in the process. The stock jumped higher at the beginning of this month after the partnership with Open AI was announced, moving from $288 all the way to $356, an all-time high at the time. Since then, the stock has seen some back-and-forth action but has maintained a series of higher lows. The recent chart action saw AVGO retract from its all-time high at $372 to a current chart position at $340. This offers a more normalized trading level for potential long investors. Initial support can be seen just below at $336. There is the potential for further support at prior highs around $316, with additional support offered on the default chart at $288-284.

The Cloud Companies

Oracle Corporation (ORCL)

ORCL has exploded higher since April, rising from a low at $120 all the way to an all-time high of $344 earlier this month. The latest gap higher, from $220 to $344, came after their contract to provide cloud computing to Open AI was announced. The stock then saw some price consolidation before giving another buy signal on Monday. ORCL is pulling back at the time of writing on Tuesday, moving from an overbought position to a current chart level in the low $310s. While this is not what we would consider to be normalized (intraday weekly OBOS reading is still north of 70%), the price consolidation can be considered constructive. Initial support is seen at $292.

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

MSFT has been the least in the news around AI investing recently, partially because they were one of the largest early investors in Open AI. This helped the stock show consistent improvement throughout 2023 and 2024. At the beginning of this year, MSFT moved lower alongside the global technology space, giving four consecutive sell signals before dropping over 20% to a relative low at $348. We then saw the stock move back to a positive trend in April and continue vertically higher to ultimately top out at $552 after showing 30 Xs in a single column. The stock has since pulled back to a chart level of $496, right around the mid-point on its trading band. In fact, MSFT is the most “normalized” of any stock in our examination today, with an intraday weekly OBOS reading of about -7%. This leaves the 5 for 5’er in an actionable position as we move into the fall. Initial support may be seen at the prior highs of $464-456, which is right around the bottom of the current trading band.

Daily Option Ideas for September 23, 2025