Gold ralllied to a new all-time high this week, continuing its historic run of outperformance over the equities.
With the start of the NFL season officially kicking off on September 4th, many who play fantasy football have poured over stats sheets recently. Deciding which players may continue their impressive performance from seasons prior or who may be that breakout player poised for their best season yet. Even as the season continues football fans will constantly evaluate their lineup and decide if players should be swapped in or out.
While the stats and metrics are different, constructing and evaluating a portfolio throughout a given year loosely follows a similar process – selecting an initial lineup of investments and then adjusting those as time moves along. While adjusting, investors have long-term holdings that have performed well and continue to find a place within the portfolio – much like a franchise quarterback an NFL roster is built upon as they have proven their worth to the team. Sometimes these long-term holdings go on historic runs, leaving investors to wonder how long such a performance can continue, but more often than not, they continue to be a part of the portfolio (think Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes for those still following the football reference).
Among the assets where the question of its recent run continuing has been prevalent is gold (GC/), which is up 32% year-to-date through the end of August. This marks the second-best performance for the shiny metal through August since the beginning of 1975 (beginning of daily pricing data for gold), following only 1979, which saw the metal rally 40% through the end of August. Gold is outperforming the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by 22% through the end of August, making for the largest outperformance by the commodity since 2011 (31% outperformance in favor of gold through August) and the 5th largest going back to the beginning of 1975.
On the point and figure trend chart, gold has been in a positive trend since 2023. This week’s action brought a second buy signal on both the default 10 point per box and intermediate-term 20 point per box chart for the commodity as it rallied to a new all-time chart high. Gold now resides in overbought territory and in an extended position on the chart well above support in the lower $3300 and upper $3200 range. With both the gold continuous chart (GC/) and SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), a pullback toward the middle of the 10-week trading band is warranted before considering exposure.
Expanding beyond 2025, gold’s one-year rolling outperformance over the S&P 500 Index (SPX) resides at 25% as of the end of August. The outperformance in favor of gold moved above 30% March through May, peaking at 34% to mark the largest outperformance in gold’s favor over SPX since late 2009.
Looking at the three-year rolling performance difference between gold and SPX shows the largest outperformance by the shiny metal over equities since 2011, and challenging levels not seen since 2009. At the end of August, gold was up 103% in the rolling three-year period for the first time since late 2011, while SPX was up 63% from August 2022 through 2025.
While performance for gold has been notable in recent months (and years for that matter), the relative strength leadership has been equally impressive. Within the broader premade Asset Class Matrix – a relative strength ranking of 34 asset class ETFs - the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has been ranked within the top quartile of the matrix since May 2024. GLD has ranked number 1 (out of 34) in the Asset Class Matrix since February 2025, marking its longest period as the top ranked ETF within the matrix going back to the beginning of 2000.
Isolating gold futures within the Continuous Commodity Matrix shows gold (GC) currently in 4th (out of 21), but it is important to note that gold has ranked within the top third of the volatile matrix for more than a year. It is worth noting that outside of feeder cattle, those commodities ranking ahead of gold as of Thursday’s (9/4) close were fellow precious metals, silver, and platinum.
Given gold’s notable relative strength leadership and strong trend picture, many investors have already added gold exposure. Until that leadership wavers, exposure should still maintain at a minimum. Those who may seek to add to an existing position will look for a pullback toward the middle of the 10-week trading band (or 50-day moving average) on the point and figure trend chart before considering.
