Daily Equity & Market Analysis
Published: Jul 30, 2025
This content is for informational purposes only. This should not be construed as solicitation. The general public should consult their financial advisor for additional information related to investment decisions.

Daily Summary

GDP Numbers Come In Strong in 2Q

Second quarter GDP numbers beat expectations as precious metals demand weakens.

Anatomy of a Weakening Broad Group: Commodities Edition

Precious metals are consolidating, energy remains weak. How to use the NDW platform to diagnose weakness in real time.

Weekly Video

07/30/2025

Weekly rundown with NDW analyst team covering all major asset classes.

Weekly rundown with NDW analyst team covering all major asset classes.

Wednesday morning, Real GDP numbers for the second quarter came in higher than expected at 3% vs 2.6% expected. While investors and economists were projecting much better than the first quarter’s reading of -0.5%, the upside surprise is a good sign for domestic markets. The largest contributor to Real GDP coming in higher than expected was a larger-than-expected decline in imports (a decline in imports results in a positive contribution to GDP). Consumer spending was the other notable contributor to the positive result. On the flip side, investment fell more than 2% in the second quarter. On the inflation front, both the Gross Domestic Purchases Price Index and PCE Price Index fell in the second quarter to roughly 2%. Overall, it was a good morning of data for the US economy prior to the FOMC interest rate decision in the afternoon.

On the back of a large trade deal agreed upon with the European Union, uncertainty in the market seems to be declining. Precious metals, which were on fire leading up the onset of tariffs, have slowed down in their ascent. This could very well be a period of consolidation following such a strong upside move, however, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has seen its fund score fall to 3.84 after a multi-month period with a score above 5.0. The absolute technical picture still looks strong for GLD despite trading on a sell signal as the fund has a YTD gain of 26.48% and trades near all-time highs. Nonetheless, with recent US economic data coming in strong and less uncertainty regarding tariffs, demand for precious metals has decelerated over the last few months. Below support at $300 and $295, there is no support offered on GLD’s default chart until $240.

Commodities blinked. After roughly a month of the top three assets in NDW’s DALI rankings sitting within just a handful of signals from each other, there looks to finally be a “relative” winner & loser within our broad rankings on August’s doorstep. While the spread between first place Domestic Equites and third ranked Commodities is still tight by historical averages, the now 24-signal spread between the pair is the widest since early May. International equities hold strong in second (and won’t be the topic for today’s feature) but remains an asset class to watch as the US Dollar (DX/Y) is trying to put in a meaningful 2025 bottom on its default chart.

Commodities have been shedding strength at both ends. Precious metals have largely consolidated - and while the group remains a relative leader, their lack of upside strength while domestic equities have marched forward is starting to show. When sorting by near-term strength (X-count) within NDW’s pre-made asset class matrix, representative GLD sits in 16th… still in the top half but at its lowest level since October of 2023. Said more plainly, relative strength looks to be gearing up to leave precious metals for other asset classes. Before moving on, it's important to note that the long-term picture remains defendable for gold and precious metals in general… just exercise caution when entering into new exposure.

On the other end of the spectrum, energy remains a relative laggard. After Middle East-induced tensions spurred intense upside action at the start of June, price action has largely cooled off for major names within the energy complex. Crude oil CL/ has fallen back to a near test of its bullish support line, and bulls would be largely discouraged by a general inability for CL/ to climb back into the $80’s on the most recent rally. Down over 7% this year, crude is also well behind its “average” year, detailed below. While the 3rd quarter is at least somewhat historically productive (gaining just under 3.5% on average in Q3) the overarching technical picture remains largely unconstructive for now.

There will be some of you who will believe that there is a “catch-up” trade to be had here, suggesting that crude will rocket higher in the face of poor technical posture to get back to “average” for the year. To start, this flies in the face of trend following, a strategy that largely believes in a continuation of similar movement until competing action dictates otherwise. Besides this anecdote, price action for other energy focused areas doesn’t necessarily support this idea either. Energy equity representative XLE maintains a poor fund score despite the fund putting together a string of three consecutive buy signals on its default chart. While constructive at first glance, a relative strength test between XLE and benchmark SPXEWI reveals quite a different story. XLE posted its third consecutive sell signal against the benchmark just last week, suggesting persistent weakness from the group.

All this to say, tread lightly when taking outsized positions within the commodity space. Precious metals are showing the markings of a group shedding relative strength and no other sub-asset group seems poised to pick up the slack. Energy names (which make up a heavy percentage of broader commodity funds) remain on rocky footing and exposure should be limited when possible.

 

Each week the analysts at NDW review and comment on all major asset classes in the global markets. Shown below is the summary or snapshot of the primary technical indicators we follow for multiple areas. Should there be changes mid-week we will certainly bring these to your attention via the report.

 

Universe BP Col & Level (actual) BP Rev Level PT Col & Level (actual) PT Rev Level HiLo Col & Level (actual) HiLo Rev Level 10 Week Col & Level (actual) 10 Week Rev Level 30 Week Col & Level (actual) 30 Week Rev Level
ALL
Xs at 48%
(48.6 +0.2)
BPALL
 
42%
Xs at 40%
(41.5 +0.9)
PTALL
 
34%
Xs at 80%
(78.2 +1.7)
ALLHILO
 
74%
Os at 60%
(58.0 -6.2)
TWALL
 
66%
Xs at 58%
(53.3 -2.1)
30ALL
 
52%
NYSE
Xs at 60%
(59.0 +0.7)
BPNYSE
 
54%
Xs at 54%
(55.0 +1.3)
PTNYSE
 
48%
Os at 78%
(79.4 +1.7)
NYSEHILO
 
84%
Os at 66%
(64.6 -4.5)
TWNYSE
 
72%
Xs at 64%
(59.4 -1.0)
30NYSE
 
58%
OTC
Xs at 46%
(45.0 +0.1)
BPOTC
 
40%
Xs at 36%
(36.7 +0.8)
PTOTC
 
30%
Xs at 78%
(78.0 +2.4)
OTCHILO
 
72%
Os at 56%
(55.4 -6.9)
TWOTC
 
62%
Xs at 56%
(50.8 -2.4)
30OTC
 
50%
World
Xs at 50%
(50.9 +1.1)
BPWORLD
 
44%
Xs at 44%
(45.3 +1.3)
PTWORLD
 
38%
N/A
N/A
Xs at 66%
(61.5 -1.3)
TWWORLD
 
60%
Xs at 60%
(59.0 +0.5)
30WORLD
 
54%

Remember, these are technical comments only. Just as you must be aware of fundamental data for the stocks we recommend based on technical criteria in the report, so too must you be aware of important data regarding delivery, market moving government releases, and other factors that may influence commodity pricing. We try to limit our technical comments to the most actively traded contracts in advance of delivery, but some contracts trade actively right up to delivery while others taper off well in advance. Be sure you check your dates before trading these contracts. For questions regarding this section or additional coverage of commodities email james.west@nasdaq.com.

Data represented in the table below is through 07/29/25:

 

Portfolio View - Commodity Indices

 

 

 

 

 

Cryptocurrency Update

Cryptocurrency Video (3:13)

Market Distribution Table The Distribution Report below places Major Market ETFs and Indices into a bell curve style table based upon their current location on their 10-week trading band.

The middle of the bell curve represents areas of the market that are "normally" distributed, with the far right being 100% overbought on a weekly distribution and the far left being 100% oversold on a weekly distribution.

The weekly distribution ranges are calculated at the end of each week, while the placement within that range will fluctuate during the week. In addition to information regarding the statistical distribution of these market indexes, a symbol that is in UPPER CASE indicates that the RS chart is on a Buy Signal. If the symbol is dark Green then the stock is on a Point & Figure buy signal, and if the symbol is bright Red then it is on a Point & Figure sell signal.

 

Average Level

46.32

< - -100 -100 - -80 -80 - -60 -60 - -40 -40 - -20 -20 - 0 0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 100 - >
                       
               
Buy signalagg
     
               
Buy signalUSO
     
               
Buy signaliwm
     
               
Sell signaldvy
     
               
Buy signalIJH
     
             
Sell signalicf
Buy signalgcc
 
Buy signalSPY
 
             
Buy signaltlt
Buy signaldia
 
Buy signalQQQ
 
           
Buy signalefa
Buy signalief
Buy signallqd
 
Buy signalONEQ
 
         
Sell signalGLD
Sell signaldx/y
Buy signalijr
Buy signalrsp
Buy signaleem
Buy signalVOOG
 
         
Buy signalfxe
Buy signalshy
Buy signalgsg
Buy signalhyg
Buy signalVOOV
Buy signalXLG
 
< - -100 -100 - -80 -80 - -60 -60 - -40 -40 - -20 -20 - 0 0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 100 - >

 

AGG iShares US Core Bond ETF
USO United States Oil Fund
DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF
DVY iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index ETF
DX/Y NYCE U.S.Dollar Index Spot
EFA iShares MSCI EAFE ETF
FXE Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust
GLD SPDR Gold Trust
GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust
HYG iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF
ICF iShares Cohen & Steers Realty ETF
IEF iShares Barclays 7-10 Yr. Tres. Bond ETF
LQD iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corp. Bond ETF
IJH iShares S&P 400 MidCap Index Fund
ONEQ Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Track
QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust
RSP Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF
IWM iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF
SHY iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Tres. Bond ETF
IJR iShares S&P 600 SmallCap Index Fund
SPY SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF Trust
TLT iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
GCC WisdomTree Continuous Commodity Index Fund
VOOG Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF
VOOV Vanguard S&P 500 Value ETF
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
XLG Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF
   

 

Long Ideas

Symbol Company Sector Current Price Action Price Target Stop Notes
OLLI Ollies Bargain Outlet Holding Inc. Retailing $137.87 120s 150 102 5 for 5'er, top 25% of favored RETA sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, buy on pullback, Earn. 8/28
DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. Restaurants $202.73 hi 190s - mid 210s 262 178 5 TA rating, top 50% of REST sector matrix, LT RS buy, consec buy signals, buy-on-pullback
HWC Hancock Whitney Corp Banks $60.52 hi 50s - lo 60s 83 50 5 TA rating, top 50% of BANK sector matrix, LT RS buy, consec buy signals, buy-on-pullback
WPM Wheaton Precious Metals Corp Precious Metals $93.38 mid 80s - low 90s 108 75 5 for 5'er, top half of PREC sector matrix, LT pos peer RS, spread triple top, buy on pullback, Earn. 8/7
UAL United Airlines Holdings Inc. Aerospace Airline $90.64 hi 80s - low 90s 116 79 4 for 5'er, top half of favored AERO sector matrix, multiple buy signals, buy on pullback
DG Dollar General Corp. Retailing $106.85 100s to mid 110s 133 86 4 TA rating, top 33% of RETA sector matrix, LT peer RS buy, consec buy signals, buy-on-pullback, Earn. 8/28
URBN Urban Outfitters, Inc. Retailing $76.47 mid-to-hi 70s 91 65 5 for 5'er, top 10% of favored RETA sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, Earn. 8/26
TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated Semiconductors $191.38 mid 180s - mid 190s 220 158 4 for 5'er, favored SEMI sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, bullish triangle, buy on pullback
BSX Boston Scientific Corporation Healthcare $106.47 99 - 108 133 91 5 for 5'er, top 25% of HEAL sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, spread triple top
TSCO Tractor Supply Company Retailing $58.59 upper 50s 66 50 3 for 5'er, top half of favored RETA sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, buy on pullback
HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc Leisure $273.06 260s - low 280s 364 216 5 TA rating, top 50% of LEIS sector matrix, LT RS buy, LT pos trend, consec buy signals, buy on pullback.
RPM RPM, Inc. Chemicals $120.26 110 - 120 150 99 5 for 5'er, top half of favored CHEM sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, bullish catapult, pos trend flip, 1.7% yield

Short Ideas

Symbol Company Sector Current Price Action Price Target Stop Notes

Follow-Up Comments

Comment
There are currently no follow-up comments.

NDW Spotlight Stock

 

RPM RPM, Inc. R ($119.35) - Chemicals - RPM is a 5 for 5'er that ranks in the top half of the favored chemicals sector matrix and has been on a market RS buy signal since 2001. In last week's trading, the stock returned to a positive trend after it completed a bullish catapult at $118. Long exposure may be added in the $110s to low $120s and we will set our initial stop at $99, a potential spread triple bottom break on RPM's default chart. We will use the bullish price objective, $150, as our target price. RPM also carries a 1.7% yield.

 
            24                   25                          
140.00                             X                         140.00
138.00                             X O                       138.00
136.00                             X O                       136.00
134.00                         X   B C                       134.00
132.00                         X O X O                       132.00
130.00                         X O X O                       130.00
128.00                         X O   O X                   Top 128.00
126.00                         A     O X O           X       126.00
124.00                         X     O X O           X O     124.00
122.00                     X   X     1 X 2             X O     122.00
120.00             X       X O 9     O X 3             X O     120.00
118.00             X O X   X O X     O   O             X       118.00
116.00             3 O X O X 8 X         O         X   X       116.00
114.00             X 4 X O X O X         O         X O 7       114.00
112.00         X   X O 5 O X O           4         X O X     Mid 112.00
110.00         X O 2 O X O X             O         5 6 X       110.00
108.00         X O X O X 6 X             O         X O         108.00
106.00         X 1 X O   7 X             O X   X   X         106.00
104.00         C O X     O               O X O X O X         104.00
102.00         X O                     O X O X O X         102.00
100.00     X   X                       O X O   O           100.00
99.00     X O X                       O X                 99.00
98.00     X O X                       O X                 98.00
97.00     X O X                       O X                 97.00
96.00 X   X O X                       O                 Bot 96.00
95.00 X O X O X                                           95.00
94.00 X O X O X                                             94.00
93.00   A   O X                                             93.00
92.00       O B                                             92.00
91.00       O X                                             91.00
90.00       O X                                             90.00
89.00       O                                               89.00
            24                   25                          

 

 

ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. ($129.19) - Semiconductors - ALAB pushed higher Wednesday to break a double top at $130, marking a third consecutive buy signal. This 5 for 5'er moved to a positive trend in May and gave an RS buy signal against the market last week. The weight of the technical evidence is decidedly positive, however, ALAB is in overbought territory. Initial support can be seen at $118 with further support seen at $108.
CEG Constellation Energy Corporation ($345.09) - Utilities/Electricity - CEG broke a double top at $344 to complete a bullish catapult and clear resistance at $340 as shares rallied to $348. The stock is a 3 for 5'er that ranks within the top quartile of the Electric Utilities sector matrix. Okay to consider here on the breakout or on a pullback to the $330 range. Initial support lies at $324, while additional can be found at $312 and $304.
ESS Essex Property Trust Inc ($268.86) - Real Estate - Shares of ESS broke a spread triple bottom at $268 to move back to a sell signal. Today’s drop also saw the stock flip back into a negative trend, bringing it down to a 3 for 5’er. While the stock is acceptable to hold, those with exposure should keep an eye out for further deterioration, such as a loss of near-term relative strength. From here, support lies at $256 then $244.
FDX FedEx Corporation ($223.96) - Aerospace Airline - FDX fell today, breaking a pair of buy signals on its default chart. The move sees it bounce off of its bearish resistance line above and solidifies some overhead resistance around $244. Continue to avoid the name for now until further technical improvement is seen. Support is offered around $216-$220, but a break past that level wouldn't be surprising.
NXT NEXTracker, Inc. Class A ($59.38) - Oil Service - NXT was down more than 8% and fell to a sell signal Wednesday when it broke a triple bottom at $59. The outlook for the stock remains favorable, however, as NXT is a 5 for 5'er that ranks in the top quintile of the oil service sector matrix. From here, the next level of support on NXT's chart is its bullish support line at $55.
ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. ($144.85) - Transports/Non Air - ODFL slipped today, moving back to 2025 lows in the process. Old support in the low-mid $170's has acted as resistance in the near-term, a net negative for long-term holders. Continue to avoid the name and sell on rallies towards the middle of the trading band.
RRR Red Rock Resorts Inc ($58.91) - Gaming - RRR reversed into Xs and broke a double top at $58 for a third consecutive buy signal since May as shares rallied to $59. The stock is a 3 for 5'er that ranks within the top half of the Gaming sector matrix and is accompanied by a yield of 1.8%. Okay to consider on a pullback to $56 on the chart. Note resistance lies in the lower $60s. Initial support lies at $53, while additional can be found in the mid to lower $40s.
SMG The Scotts Company ($62.14) - Chemicals - SMG was down more than 6.5% Wednesday following its earnings release and fell to a sell signal when it broke a double bottom at $66. SMG continued lower to $61, where it now sits against support. The return to a sell signal adds evidence to an already negative technical picture as SMG is a 2 for 5'er that has been trading in a negative trend since 2024.
UNM Unum Group ($71.96) - Insurance - UNM shares moved lower today to break a double bottom at $76 to mark its second consecutive sell signal and enter a negative trend. This 4 for 5'er has been on an RS buy signal versus the market since April 2022. UNM shares are trading below the bottom of their trading in heavily oversold territory. From here, support is offered at $67.
WING Wingstop Inc. ($365.45) - Restaurants - WING reversed into Xs and broke a double top at $332 to return to a buy signal, completing a bearish signal reversal as shares rallied to $372. With the +25% rally, WING will reverse back into a column of Xs on both the market and peer RS charts; increasing the stock to a 5 for 5'er. Those seeking exposure may look to dollar cost average into a position as prices may consolidate in the mid to upper $300 range. Note resistance lies at $388, the June rally high. Support on the default chart lows at $284, while the bullish support line sits at $252.
WLK Westlake Corp. ($80.21) - Chemicals - WLK fell to a sell signal Wednesday when it completed a bearish triangle at $81. Wednesday's sell signal adds to an already weak technical picture as WLK is a 1 for 5'er that ranks in the bottom fifth of the chemicals sector matrix. From here, the next level of support sits at $80. WLK is expected to report earnings on 8/5.

 

Daily Option Ideas for July 30, 2025

Calls
New Recommendations
Name Option Symbol Action Stop Loss
Philip Morris International Inc. - $162.85 O: 25K160.00D21 Buy the November 160.00 calls at 11.10 146.00
Follow Ups
Name Option Action
No Follow Ups
Puts
New Recommendations
Name Option Symbol Action Stop Loss
Salesforce Inc. - $264.34 O: 25W260.00D21 Buy the November 260.00 puts at 15.50 300.00
Follow Up
Name Option Action
Enphase Energy Inc ( ENPH) Sep. 40.00 Puts Raise the option stop loss to 5.35 (CP: 7.35)
United Parcel Service, Inc. ( UPS) Oct. 100.00 Puts Raise the option stop loss to 11.85 (CP: 13.85)
Carmax Group ( KMX) Sep. 65.00 Puts Raise the option stop loss to 5.60 (CP: 7.60)
American International Group, Inc. ( AIG) Sep. 82.50 Puts Initiate an option stop loss of 4.00 (CP: 6.00)
Marvell Technology Inc. ( MRVL) Sep. 72.50 Puts Stopped at 79.00 (CP: 81.13)
Novo Nordisk A/S (Denmark) ADR ( NVO) Sep. 65.00 Puts Raise the option stop loss to 13.35 (CP: 15.35)
Covered Writes
New Recommendations
Name Option Sym. Call to Sell Call Price Investment for 500 Shares Annual Called Rtn. Annual Static Rtn. Downside Protection
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Class A $ 67.96 O: 25H66.00D15 Aug. 66.00 3.85 $ 31,949.45 51.08% 51.08% 4.69%
Still Recommended
Name Action
Hims & Hers Health Inc. ( HIMS) - 60.27 Sell the September 55.00 Calls.
IonQ Inc. ( IONQ) - 40.53 Sell the October 42.00 Calls.
MARA Holdings Inc. ( MARA) - 16.61 Sell the December 18.00 Calls.
Palantir Technologies Inc. Class A ( PLTR) - 156.24 Sell the August 145.00 Calls.
General Motors ( GM) - 52.11 Sell the December 55.00 Calls.
NetApp, Inc. ( NTAP) - 106.06 Sell the December 110.00 Calls.
The Following Covered Write are no longer recommended
Name Covered Write
Fortinet Inc. ( FTNT - 104.77 ) September 105.00 covered write.
Airbnb, Inc. Class A ( ABNB - 136.84 ) September 140.00 covered write.
Expedia Group Inc. ( EXPE - 182.81 ) August 185.00 covered write.
Dollar General Corp. ( DG - 106.85 ) September 110.00 covered write.
Newmont Corp ( NEM - 63.99 ) October 65.00 covered write.

 

Most Requested Symbols