The bullish percent for the S&P 500 (^BPSPX) reversed back into Xs at 74% after having been in Os since early June, while the BP for NYSE stocks moved above 60%.
Interested in finding out where you and your clients need to be positioned as we open the back half of the year? Join our team next Wednesday, July 16th at 1PM EST in our Quarterly Webinar to discuss the "Weight of the Evidence" as we enter what will undoubtedly be a busy back half of 2025. NDW's Senior Portfolio Manager, John Lewis, will discuss what he has his eye on from a technical perspective, while Nasdaq's macroeconomic experts Phil Mackintosh and Yanni Angelakos keep you up to date with all the latest headlines and what you need to know to cut through the noise.
While most US Equity indices finished Monday’s trading in negative territory, bullish percent (BP) indicators actually increased – suggesting more stocks were giving buy signals on their point and figure charts. The bullish percent for the S&P 500 (^BPSPX) - which maintains the highest reading among the major BPs discussed - reversed back into Xs at 74% after having been in Os since early June, while the BP for NYSE stocks moved above 60% in its current column of Xs that has been in place since April. ^BPSPX was preceded by the bullish percent for the S&P Mid Cap 400 (^BPSPMID) moving back into Xs early last week, and the BP for the S&P Small Cap 600 (^BPSPSML) having maintained a column of Xs since late April.
Examining the current breakdown of S&P 500 (502 stocks technically) reveals 372 stocks maintaining point and figure buy signals. Among those, the majority maintain high technical attribute ratings (TA ≥ 3) with the largest number being 5 for 5’ers. Additionally, while lower technical attribute stocks returning to buy signals may seem like an opportunity, NDW followers will look for high attribute names that have maintained positive long-term technical pictures and may trade within actionable price ranges.
The table below shows the forward returns of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) based upon positioning of the bullish percent (^BPSPX). Reversals to the current chart position for the ^BPSPX have historically seen muted returns in the short-term for the index before intermediate to longer-term returns improve. This doesn’t mean indices are meant for an impending collapse in the coming weeks, as elevated levels on the bullish percent are signs of a healthy broader equity space. Given the near-term uncertainty prevalent within the broader market around tariffs, rates, etc., investors may not be surprised by an uptick in volatility and/or pullback from equity index highs. If/when that may occur, NDW users will want to closely monitor participation levels and whether stocks can continue to maintain buy signals.
