Monday’s action marked the end of the second quarter of 2025. Reports over the next week or so will go into greater detail about changes and other updates regarding the shifts witnessed during the second quarter, along with how potential changes could impact our stance as we move into the back half of 2025. To start off that commentary, the table below looks at the performance of various asset class ETFs alongside related highlights.

Domestic Equities

While Q2 started off with downside action for most major indices, May’s action brought a notable rally, and June saw a steady continuation of that positive action. Technology, Industrials, and Communications Services assisted the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) in leading major index funds, followed by the SPDR S&P 500 Trust (SPY), highlighting how large and mega cap stocks led the rally. With Q2’s performance, all of the major index ETFs but the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) returned to positive territory on a year-to-date basis. Though the top three asset classes jockeyed for positioning during June, Domestic Equities emerged from the second quarter as the top ranked asset class. Even so, the analyst team continues to monitor the DALI Asset Class rankings as the top three ranked asset classes are separated by only eight buy (tally) signals as of 6/30.

International Equities

Despite continued uncertainty around tariffs, downside action within the US Dollar provided fodder for international equities to lead the broader asset classes during the second quarter. Emerging markets slightly edged out developed markets during Q2, but the 11% rally by both EEM and EFA highlight the breadth of improvement within the broader asset class. International equities now lead the major asset classes on a year-to-date basis and were the most improved within the DALI rankings. This led international equities moved to the top position within DALI briefly in mid-June for the first time since mid 2023. With international equities residing in second and still jockeying with the other two offensive asset classes – domestic equities and commodities – client portfolios will continue to maintain exposure to the asset class.

Commodities

For the second quarter in a row precious metals provided leadership for the asset class with gold and silver funds being up 5%. Late in the quarter, a rebound from crude oil brought the commodity up from multi-year lows and the broader energy space to roughly flat on a year-to-date basis. Agriculture continues to maintain a laggard position from a performance and relative strength perspective. Commodities briefly moved to number 1 on the back of the abrupt rally within crude oil in June, only to fall back to 3^rd after crude’s subsequent retraction. Leadership within commodities remains narrow with precious metals continuing to carry the weight of the asset classes positive relative strength.

Fixed Income

Fixed income assets rose during the second quarter in a row as interest rates fell slightly during the quarter. Convertible bonds rebounded along with broader equities and international bonds provided notable performance leadership during the second quarter. After being the best performing area within Fixed Income last quarter, longer-dated treasuries, along with broader treasuries, were the worst performing areas of the asset class.

As the books closed on the second quarter of 2025 this week, we saw strong action across most asset classes. US equities rebounded after struggling early in the second quarter, while international equities continued to march higher in the face of a falling US Dollar. International equity representative, SPDR MSCI ACWI ex-US ETF (CWI), has gained 16.89% year-to-date which places it well and above other representatives in 2025. Within the Asset Class Rankings of DALI, international equities and commodities sit behind domestic equities despite continued jockeying for position in Q2. Rates generally fell during the quarter, which led to fixed income picking up some strength but still ranks fifth out of the six asset classes.

As noted above, Domestic Equities ended the quarter maintaining its first position in the DALI (Dynamic Asset Level Investing) Asset Class Rankings and positioned the asset class as an overweight within tactical relative strength (RS) based strategies. DALI is designed to help identify where strength (or weakness) resides across and within the broad asset classes. DALI strategies aim to overweight the strongest asset classes in the market and underweight the weakest. During the fourth quarter, most tactical strategies maintained some level of international equities exposure - overweight in more aggressive RS strategies; minimum weight within more conservative – while also maintaining minimum exposure to fixed income and avoiding broader currencies.  That said, before we look at the DALI performance review for the quarter, let's revisit the various strategies.

DALI Allocation Strategies

DALI No Bogey: One of the most basic strategies, DALI No Bogey, assumes owning the top two ranked asset classes in an equal-weighted fashion.

DALI with Bogey: Like the DALI No Bogey strategy, DALI with Bogey owns the top two ranked asset classes, but it also employs the Cash Bogey Check. If one of the two asset classes “Fails” that Cash Bogey Check, cash replaces it in the portfolio allocation.

3-Legged Stool: The 3-Legged Stool Strategy, as the name implies, consists of three slices. Two of the slices (or legs) are allocated to the top two asset classes emphasized in DALI, and the third leg is designed to be a constant equity exposure. Within this strategy, the managed equity exposure can take on a different meaning for each, but it is one way to further customize DALI by using individual stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, UITs, or a combination of all.

DALI Tactical Allocation: The Tactical Allocation, or 6-Legged Stool as this strategy has come to be known in some circles, is a strategy where 15% of the portfolio is allocated to domestic equities, international equities, commodities, and fixed income. That accounts for 60% of the portfolio. The other 40% is split between the top two emphasized asset classes in DALI. This has the effect of always maintaining exposure to four asset classes and then using DALI to know which asset classes to overweight.

DALI Flexible Allocation: In the DALI Flexible Allocation Strategy, each asset class is weighted in the portfolio based on the percent of total "buy signals" the asset class maintains relative to the current sum of "tally" signals. In this strategy you are always maintaining exposure to all six asset classes; however, depending on where the strength is in the market, you will be overweighting and underweighting different asset classes at different times.

DALI Tactical Tilt Allocation: Our Tactical Tilt program was designed to begin with a strategic target in mind, perhaps something along the lines of 60% stocks and 40% other "stuff" and then establish ranges within which the portfolio can adapt. As our research over the past years has proven, those ranges must be wide enough to allow real adaptation to take place but narrow enough to avoid the common complaints of "purely tactical" portfolios. In a sample moderate "Tilt" allocation, an offensive portfolio could have 75% exposure to US equities while a sample defensive portfolio could be only 20% US equities and 60% fixed income.

Click here to go to the DALI Strategies Page for current suggested allocations. Note that you can also see the Tactical Tilt Models under Models & Products > Models > Tactical Tilt (filter on left-hand side).

So, how do these work? First, we assign strategic boundaries to each asset class, which will vary according to the targeted risk tolerance of the portfolio. Once the minimum weightings in each asset class are satisfied, the remaining portfolio allocations are filled beginning with the strongest asset class in DALI up to that asset class's maximum allocation. Once the maximum weighting for the top-ranked asset class is achieved, you would simply fill the second-ranked asset class, and so on until 100% of the total allocation is applied. Using the "Moderate Tilt Allocation" as an example in the current market, 20% would go to domestic equities to fulfill the minimum requirement, 5% to international, 20% to fixed income, and 0.5% to cash. The remaining 54.5% is left to "Tactically Tilt.” Since domestic equities are currently the number-one-ranked asset class, they can receive all the remaining allocation of 54.5%, giving that asset class a 74.5% total allocation.

The following performance quilt shows several sample portfolios for the period beginning 12/31/2012 and running through 3/31/2025. Certain strategies do better than others at different points in time and in different market environments, which is evident in the yearly breakdown. Because we have been in a strong bull market for US equities for most of this period, the strategies that have allowed for the greatest overweight to that asset class ultimately rise to the top in cumulative performance. However, other years, like 2022, saw different asset classes rise to the top of the performance rankings, highlighting the importance of using a tactical approach to shift the allocation when needed.

While certain markets can lend themselves nicely to asset class rotation, it is often the sub-asset class decisions that help generate significant alpha in the portfolio over time. For example, should you be overweighting technology or real estate? Treasuries or high-yield bonds? Emerging or developed markets?

The quilt below displays variations of the DALI Strategies discussed above but adds that additional layer of relative strength analysis to the sub-asset class level. To accomplish this, we have substituted DWA-guided ETF Models' returns for each asset class instead of an index proxy. For example, instead of buying the iShares Core S&P US Total Stock Market ETF (ITOT) for our US Equity exposure, the quilt below assumes an investment in the First Trust Focus Five Model for exposure to the asset class. As you can see, adding this layer of analysis to your portfolios offers value to asset allocation strategies.

Daily Option Ideas for July 1, 2025