Equity indices are positive so far in the month of June, but today we want to focus solely on the month of July.

Next week marks the last full week of June, and while the S&P 500 (SPX) won’t be up double digits through the first half 2025 like the prior two years, the index is still positive through Wednesday’s close (6/18). Equity indices are positive so far in the month of June, but today we want to focus solely on the month of July. A few key points:

• Since 1987, June has produced more muted returns than July, but when June returns for SPX have been positive, July has also been positive 65% of the time (since 1987).
• Despite landing in the middle of summer, which has historically been an uneventful season, the S&P 500 is positive 64% of the time since 1987, better than other summer months (June & August)
• July during the first year of the President’s term have been better than average. Since 1928, SPX has averaged roughly 2.3% in July and produced positive returns 67% of the time during the first year of a President’s term.

The top chart below shows the average, max, and minimum S&P 500 return for each month since 1987. Notice that July has the “best minimum" return of all months and the highest max return of the summer months (June to August). The bottom chart shows the average, max, and minimum rolling three-month return for the S&P 500. March through May has historically been one of the best streaks for stocks, but April through June and May through July also stand above most other stretches in terms of max return.

Recent years have seen the month of July continue a historic streak of positive returns with July 2024 marking 10 straight years. While impressive, this 10 year run ranks 2^nd since 1928 in terms of streaks of positive returns during July – the longest being an 11-year period from 1948 to 1959. Despite a period in the mid 1940s, July produced a positive return in 20 out of 25 years from 1935 to 1959.

Given the current streak of a decade of positive returns in July, investors will seek another positive month to match the all-time streak. Looking back to 1928, when July has produced a positive return (59 years) the second half of the year – from end of July to end of December - has finished positive 76% of the time (45 years) with an average return of 8.5% for the S&P 500.