As mentioned in yesterday's Daily Equity Report, the week kicked off with International Equities overtaking Commodities for second within the DALI Asset Class Rankings. Though the top three asset classes – Domestic Equities, International Equities, and Commodities – are all now separated by just two tally signals and signaling a potential emergence of a new leader on the horizon, International Equities have been the most improved asset class within DALI for much of 2025. While relative improvement has been steady, funds within the space have rallied to either all-time or 52-week chart highs within the past month or so.

The iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) rallied above $90 to improve on its recent all-time chart high during Monday’s trading (6/9), while the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) matched the October rally high from last year during Monday’s trading only to move above $47.50 and mark a new 52-week chart high during Tuesday’s intraday trading. Given the chart highs for both EFA and EEM this week, the tables below list country-specific ETFs that currently trade at either all-time or 52-week chart highs as of Monday’s close. Bear in mind these lists are country specific and primarily based on funds ranked within the NDW World ETF Matrix; regional, factor-related, or broader based international funds were not considered.

Among those countries shown within the all-time chart highs list that currently trade within an actionable price range are Switzerland (EWL), France (EWQ), and Japan (EWJ). Similar to EFA and EEM above, the remaining country funds - and those to reach all-time chart highs within the past few trading days - reside in overbought territory on their weekly distribution readings along with being extended on their trend charts. Those seeking exposure to country funds like Germany (EWG), for example, would be better served looking for price consolidation at current chart levels or a pullback toward the middle of the 10-week trading band before adding to portfolios. While the fund didn’t make the current list of country ETFs trading at all-time chart highs, the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) deserves a shoutout after reaching highs in mid-May and pulling back to the middle of the 10-week trading band through early June.

Among the 14 ETFs listed below that currently trade at 52-week chart highs, the Global X MSCI Greece ETF (GREK) and iShares MSCI Peru and Global Exposure ETF (EPU) are nearest to their all-time chart highs. Spain (EWP), Italy (EWI), Belgium (EWK), Singapore (EWS), United Kingdom (EWU), and Austria (EWO) also deserve shoutouts for trading at multi-year highs. Somewhat like Argentina above, the iShares MSCI Poland ETF (EPOL) rallied to a 52-week high during May before pulling back during the first part of June.

Examination of many of the point and figure charts for the country ETFs may be reveal extended positioning and/or a weekly overbought reading above actionable territory (Weekly OBOS > 70%) by NDW standards. Either consolidation at current price/chart levels, helping develop support closer to current trading, or a pullback toward the middle of the 10-week trading band would offer opportunity for those seeking to add international or country specific exposure.   

A common adage is that the summertime period is usually a slow time in equity markets for whatever reason people come up with – vacations, distance from the end/beginning of the year, etc. While there is some truth to the old adage, the summer has been much brighter for equity markets since 2010 versus since 1990. For today, we’ll define summer as the period from 5/31 to 8/31. The average return over the summer for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) since 1990 is a measly 0.87% while the rest of the year (8/31 – 12/31) averaged 4.22%. Even on a median basis, the summer months have struggled relative to the rest of the year with the SPX returning 2.48% versus 5.24%, respectively since 1990. While it is true that the summertime period is three months while the rest of the year is four months, this is still a notable spread in performance. However, this changes when looking at market returns since 2010. Market returns have been much better in the summer and beat the rest of the year on a median basis. Since 2010, the summer months have had a median return of 4.15% versus a rest of the year return of 4.13%.

Much of the difference between the two lookback periods has to with just a few instances. For example, before 2010, the SPX had three summertime periods where it posted a loss of more than 10% while that hasn’t happened once since 2010 (1990, 1998, and 2002).  Positive returns have been more consistent since 2010 as well with the SPX positive 73% of the time over the summer, while going back to 1990 dropped that positive hit rate down to 63%. While summertime returns have been better since 2010 versus going all the way back to 1990, the slow part of the summer market adage has rung true. Over both periods, since 1990 and since 2010, the average VIX reading in the summer has been less than the average VIX reading for the rest of the year. The spread has gotten closer when looking at the data since 2010 which also highlights the seemingly less difference between the summer months and the rest of the year. Secondly, volatility has been lower on average since 2010 than since 1990 and while many immediately think of 2008 and 2009, 1997 through 2002 was also a period of consistently elevated volatility.

When looking at the last few summers, they have been especially strong. Outside of 2022 when the SPX returned -4.29% in the summer versus -2.92% the rest of the year, summertime returns beat the rest of the year returns every year since 2020 by an average of 2.68%. This is impressive given the summertime period has one less month to work with than the rest of the year. While the old adage about summer and the market has remained true from a volatility standpoint, the idea that it’s a poor performance period has not rung true over the last 15 years. There could be plenty of reasons why this has been the case, but regardless, it highlights the importance of following a relative strength approach despite what some long-term seasonality studies may suggest. As we've seen over the last five years, missing out on the summer would've led to a big hit to performance over that entire period. While seasonal trends are an observable phenomenon, it's important not to overemphasize it when managing client's portfolios. 

Daily Option Ideas for June 10, 2025