Less than two weeks ago we had a featured article outlining the fears around an AI bubble and while there are plenty of legitimate concerns, the main takeaway was that if earnings continue to grow along with spending, then the AI run can continue (read more here). However, that is a big “if” especially since technology becomes more widely available, the cheaper it gets. Those that were around in the 1990s may remember the fiber optic cable craze before a few innovations drastically cheapened the price for those cables. While the cost fluctuations of AI may not be that extreme, its continued adoption requires it to be economically viable for companies to justify the cost at some point. In that regard, news surrounding Microsoft (MSFT) dropped this morning that it was reducing sales quotas on AI-related products as companies have shown resistance to the overall benefits of AI relative to its costs. MSFT fell on the news before the market opened before more news came out refuting the first report (CNBC). While the first report was refuted, it does show the fragility of the AI space in the sense that many of these companies must grow earnings significantly to justify current prices. Microsoft did pullback alongside the broader market in November but remains a strong buy via our technical attribute rating system, so the technical picture is still strong.

If AI technology does get cheaper over time or becomes too expensive relative to its usefulness to create demand destruction, we’ll likely see margin compression from companies in the space. This doesn’t only mean that companies on the cutting edge of AI will be impacted, the infrastructure build out necessary for AI’s projected track would also be heavily impacted. One fund that was recently launched in the space is the Defiance AI & Power Infrastructure ETF (AIPO).

While it has limited price history, AIPO and other AI infrastructure funds are worth watching to gauge how the companies involved in the AI buildout are performing. These are the companies that may be first to show cracks before the big AI names as their immediate results depend upon the scale of buildout. For example, if AI becomes more energy efficient, it would show up in the performance of energy companies involved in AI. One current example is Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG). CEG is up 62.56% year-to-date and has a strong technical attribute rating (4 out of 5) but has slowed down in recent months and is just a couple of boxes from entering a negative trend. Nonetheless, the holdings within AIPO are worth watching either for stock ideas or indications that the tide may be shifting for the overall space.

The precious metals craze has seemed to die down a touch since gold has consolidated off of all time highs. Despite this, the space remains a long-term technical leader due to all the hard work done over the past year. In fact, the precious metals group ranks first out of all 134 groups on the Asset Class Group Scores (ACGS) with an average score of 5.29- not bad for a group that is typically tagged as a “defensive” asset class. Despite a bit of consolidation, the actual technical picture for GLD is quite interesting around current levels. Highlighted in the chart below is the recent bullish triangle pattern posted for representative GLD. Also highlighted are other “notable” periods of consolidation at or around then all-time highs. Late 2023, late 2024, mid-2025 all serve as recent examples of the fund taking a quick breather before rocketing forward. The subsequent three stems of X’s averaged a ~34% straight shot higher. From here- a similar move would see GLD trade around $495, a value even the most loyal momentum trader would point to as stretched. While this game of recent historical averages certainly shouldn’t be construed as a call to get to that level any time soon, it does serve as a reminder that each did begin with a brief period of consolidation… just like we see at current levels.

While GLD has taken a breather (for now…) silver has only picked up steam. Up over 100% this year, SLV trades at all-time highs, having most recently broken past some stiff resistance in the upper $40’s on its default chart. While the quick move higher does leave the precious metal in overbought territory, it still trades well off levels seen most recently in October of 2025. Point being, we are far from “hyper-extended” around current levels. Pullbacks to $50 would be constructive.

Both would certainly be considered “winners” by relative strength standards... so how do we know what might be coming down the pipeline? When we are faced with this kind of scenario, we will typically rely on relative strength charts which allow us to run a true one-to-one comparison between two strong assets. The RS chart below pins silver SLV vs. gold GLD on a 3.25% scale. Silver’s strength has been strong enough to leave it just one box away from returning to a buy signal for the first time since 2024… but the overall relationship has been choppy since the turn of the decade. Before that, this chart was the pinnacle of the consistent RS relationship, which we typically define as signals leading to more signals of that same type. Conversationally, you will notice a few points:

• Outside of the 2010’s, GLD took over during periods of unrest. Note the consecutive sell signals (GLD favored) during the dotcom bubble and GFC.
• Silver SLV has taken over off major lows. Note coming off the bottom in 2003, 2009 and 2020. This makes sense- silver offers more practical economic use cases than gold and is typically considered more “risk-on” compared to gold.

Both of these points make sense…. But the major elephant in the room is that we aren’t coming off a major bottom and there have recently been more concerns about a slowing economy than an expanding one, sans artificial intelligence spending. This perhaps lends itself to the unproductive RS relationship we have seen since the start of 2020- precious metals aren’t necessarily acting like they are “supposed to,” at least in their overall historical context.

Despite this, following price has still been a productive endeavor. Below every RS chart shows a switching strategy that compares a hypothetical portfolio that owns whichever asset is on an RS buy signal vs. a simple buy and hold portfolio of either asset on its own. A hypothetical $100,000 portfolio following the RS leader turned into nearly $1.5 million since 1993- compared to a ~1.25 million & 1.1 million for SLV & GLD respectively. The NDW analyst team will frequently reference these switching portfolios to judge the consistency of a given relationship.

Remember, our commentary today focused on a comparison of two strong assets, but its easy to forget that both silver and gold have been strong on an absolute basis for quite a while. Both SLV & GLD have outperformed the broad market handedly since moving above NDW’s technically acceptable 3.0 fund score marker over the last few years. Remember to take a weight of the evidence when considering an overall investment thesis, including elements of absolute and relative factors.

Each week the analysts at NDW review and comment on all major asset classes in the global markets. Shown below is the summary or snapshot of the primary technical indicators we follow for multiple areas. Should there be changes mid-week we will certainly bring these to your attention via the report.

Remember, these are technical comments only. Just as you must be aware of fundamental data for the stocks we recommend based on technical criteria in the report, so too must you be aware of important data regarding delivery, market moving government releases, and other factors that may influence commodity pricing. We try to limit our technical comments to the most actively traded contracts in advance of delivery, but some contracts trade actively right up to delivery while others taper off well in advance. Be sure you check your dates before trading these contracts. For questions regarding this section or additional coverage of commodities email james.west@nasdaq.com.

Data represented in the table below is through 12/2/25:

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