Daily Equity & Market Analysis
Published: Jul 29, 2025
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Daily Summary

Point & Figure Pulse

U.S. Dollar Euro Cross Rate chart returns to a buy signal following U.S. - E.U. Trade Agreement.

A Tale of Two Markets: Volatility & Beta Review

Since the post-Liberation Day bottom in April, the market has shifted significantly towards riskier areas. Today, we look at the performance and strength of stocks depending on their beta and volatility.

Weekly Video

Weekly Rundown Video – July 23, 2025

Weekly rundown with NDW analyst team covering all major asset classes.

Weekly rundown with NDW analyst team covering all major asset classes.

Point & Figure Pulse

by David Clark

Monday’s market action was driven by the announcement over the weekend that the U.S and E.U. struck a framework trade agreement with baseline tariffs beginning at 15%. While the full and final details will be ironed out in the coming weeks and months, a variety of assets saw notable movement following the announcement. The U.S. dollar capped of Monday’s trading session up 1% and Tuesday’s intraday price action brought the Spot Index (DX/Y) above $99 on its default point and figure chart. This brings the chart of the Dollar Spot Index a little over 2.5% above its April lows with the initial chart reversal transpiring two weeks ago on 7/14. The chart continues to maintain a sell signal and a negative trend, and, at the moment, it would take a move above $101 from here on the default trend chart to return DX/Y back to a buy signal.

While investors look for additional upside action out of the dollar, trade is influenced by the price of the counterparty currency’s movement relative to the dollar. Following Monday’s action, the U.S. Dollar Euro Cross Rate (USDEUR) chart reversed into a column of Xs after having been in Os since last Wednesday (7/23). This places a higher bottom on the cross rate for the first time since giving a sell signal in January. Intraday action Tuesday brought the USDEUR cross rate above 0.8668, which will return it to a buy signal for the first time since January. From here, investors will await further details on the U.S.- E.U. trade deal, along with other potential resolutions to trade, to see if the dollar can build upon recent upside action. 


It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. So far in 2025, it’s been a tale of two markets, with the domestic equities looking entirely different before and after the post-Liberation Day bottom in April. One of the biggest changes in the market from April has been the shift from low-risk equities in favor of more high-octane areas. Two of the most common approaches to measuring the riskiness of a stock are its standard deviation and beta. On April 8th, the Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV) was down only 2.7% YTD while the Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF (SPHB) was down 24.1%. Since then, the market is back to all-time highs while SPHB is up 55.2%, which is 48.3% more than SPLV.  While the two funds can give us some idea of the performance of riskier and less risky equities, it doesn’t provide a full picture. 

To look at things further under a microscope, we split the S&P 500 (SPX) into five baskets (quintiles) depending on their three-year standard deviation and beta entering each year since 2015 (excluding companies acquired intra-year). The highest volatility and beta names have been the best performing groups so far this year, but their path to get there has been anything but steady. The riskier groups were laggards through April, but with growth areas pushing the market higher, the riskier groups have steadily outperformed in each month since then.  

In addition to looking at the group’s performance, we can use relative strength and participation readings to quantify what type of stocks are most in favor. Currently, the highest beta stocks hold an average technical attribute score of 3.17, which is 0.83 points above the lowest beta group. Interestingly, the TA score of high volatility names is only marginally higher than low volatility stocks. Participation readings are generally higher for the riskier stocks, but especially so for high beta stocks. Looking at intermediate-term participation, 79% of high beta stocks are on a buy signal compared to only 65% of low beta stocks. Meanwhile, 73.5% the highest volatility stocks are on a buy signal, which is below the 3rd and 4th decile, but substantially above the low volatility group's 51.5%.

While looking at the strength of different valuations may assist with determining favorable stock characteristics, it can also shed light on what type of market environment we’re in. In theory, bull markets should favor stocks with higher systemic and overall risk while bear markets should see less risky (and potentially less cyclical) stocks perform better. With the exceptions of 2016 and 2024, high beta stocks beat low volatility stocks in every up year while underperforming in every down year. The trend is slightly murkier for volatility, as highly volatile names defied expectations in 2016,  2017, 2019, and 2024. Focusing back on this year, high risk names doing well adds at least some weight to the notion that we’re in more of a risk-on environment. 

The recent preference for riskier stocks also aligns with what relative strength is telling us. Looking again at SPHB, it holds a nearly perfect fund score of 5.80 and a sharply positive score direction of 4.72, highlighting its significant return to strength. The fund is on two consecutive buy signals and returned to a positive trend in May. On its market RS chart, it recently completed its third consecutive market RS buy signal after reversing back into a column of Xs in May. Although, the fund is at the top of its ten-week trading band with an overbought/oversold reading of 97%, so it could see some cooling down in the near-term. Meanwhile, SPLV holds a weak fund score of 2.65, in addition to a negative score direction of 2.19. It also reversed into a column of Os on its RS chart versus the S&P 500 and is one box away from moving back to an RS sell signal, showcasing its deterioration relative to the rest of the market. It’s also on a sell signal and faces heavy resistance at $75. Overall, riskier stocks and growth areas are responsible for much of the market’s rebound over the last few months and continue to hold some of the most relative strength.

 

Market Distribution Table The Distribution Report below places Major Market ETFs and Indices into a bell curve style table based upon their current location on their 10-week trading band.

The middle of the bell curve represents areas of the market that are "normally" distributed, with the far right being 100% overbought on a weekly distribution and the far left being 100% oversold on a weekly distribution.

The weekly distribution ranges are calculated at the end of each week, while the placement within that range will fluctuate during the week. In addition to information regarding the statistical distribution of these market indexes, a symbol that is in UPPER CASE indicates that the RS chart is on a Buy Signal. If the symbol is dark Green then the stock is on a Point & Figure buy signal, and if the symbol is bright Red then it is on a Point & Figure sell signal.

 

Average Level

40.42

< - -100 -100 - -80 -80 - -60 -60 - -40 -40 - -20 -20 - 0 0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 100 - >
                       
               
Buy signalijr
     
           
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Sell signaldvy
     
           
Sell signaldx/y
 
Buy signaliwm
     
           
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Buy signalQQQ
 
         
Sell signalGLD
Buy signalefa
Sell signalUSO
Buy signalIJH
 
Buy signalSPY
 
         
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Buy signallqd
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Buy signaldia
Buy signalONEQ
 
         
Sell signalicf
Buy signalagg
Buy signalgcc
Buy signaleem
Buy signalVOOV
Buy signalVOOG
Buy signalXLG
< - -100 -100 - -80 -80 - -60 -60 - -40 -40 - -20 -20 - 0 0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 100 - >

 

AGG iShares US Core Bond ETF
USO United States Oil Fund
DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF
DVY iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index ETF
DX/Y NYCE U.S.Dollar Index Spot
EFA iShares MSCI EAFE ETF
FXE Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust
GLD SPDR Gold Trust
GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust
HYG iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF
ICF iShares Cohen & Steers Realty ETF
IEF iShares Barclays 7-10 Yr. Tres. Bond ETF
LQD iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corp. Bond ETF
IJH iShares S&P 400 MidCap Index Fund
ONEQ Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Track
QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust
RSP Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF
IWM iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF
SHY iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Tres. Bond ETF
IJR iShares S&P 600 SmallCap Index Fund
SPY SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF Trust
TLT iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
GCC WisdomTree Continuous Commodity Index Fund
VOOG Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF
VOOV Vanguard S&P 500 Value ETF
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
XLG Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF
   

 

Long Ideas

Symbol Company Sector Current Price Action Price Target Stop Notes
OLLI Ollies Bargain Outlet Holding Inc. Retailing $139.34 120s 150 102 5 for 5'er, top 25% of favored RETA sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, buy on pullback, Earn. 8/28
DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. Restaurants $203.11 hi 190s - mid 210s 262 178 5 TA rating, top 50% of REST sector matrix, LT RS buy, consec buy signals, buy-on-pullback
HWC Hancock Whitney Corp Banks $60.69 hi 50s - lo 60s 83 50 5 TA rating, top 50% of BANK sector matrix, LT RS buy, consec buy signals, buy-on-pullback
WPM Wheaton Precious Metals Corp Precious Metals $91.73 mid 80s - low 90s 108 75 5 for 5'er, top half of PREC sector matrix, LT pos peer RS, spread triple top, buy on pullback, Earn. 8/7
UAL United Airlines Holdings Inc. Aerospace Airline $92.43 hi 80s - low 90s 116 79 4 for 5'er, top half of favored AERO sector matrix, multiple buy signals, buy on pullback
DG Dollar General Corp. Retailing $105.81 100s to mid 110s 133 86 4 TA rating, top 33% of RETA sector matrix, LT peer RS buy, consec buy signals, buy-on-pullback, Earn. 8/28
URBN Urban Outfitters, Inc. Retailing $77.72 mid-to-hi 70s 91 65 5 for 5'er, top 10% of favored RETA sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, Earn. 8/26
TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated Semiconductors $189.25 mid 180s - mid 190s 220 158 4 for 5'er, favored SEMI sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, bullish triangle, buy on pullback
BSX Boston Scientific Corporation Healthcare $105.84 99 - 108 133 91 5 for 5'er, top 25% of HEAL sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, spread triple top
TSCO Tractor Supply Company Retailing $58.11 upper 50s 66 50 3 for 5'er, top half of favored RETA sector matrix, LT pos mkt RS, buy on pullback
HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc Leisure $270.57 260s - low 280s 364 216 5 TA rating, top 50% of LEIS sector matrix, LT RS buy, LT pos trend, consec buy signals, buy on pullback.

Short Ideas

Symbol Company Sector Current Price Action Price Target Stop Notes

Removed Ideas

Symbol Company Sector Current Price Action Price Target Stop Notes
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation Retailing $933.99     792 Moved to a sell signal. Current exposure may maintain $792 stop.
ERJ Embraer - Empresa Brasileira de Aeronau (Brazil) ADR Aerospace Airline $47.39 hi 40s - low 50s 92 43 Removed for earnings (8/5).

Follow-Up Comments

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NDW Spotlight Stock

 

HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc ($273.06) R - Leisure - HLT has a 5 for 5 TA rating and has maintained an RS buy signal against the market since early 2018. We have also seen HLT maintain a positive trend since 2023, speaking to the long-term technical strength. The stock pushed higher earlier this month to notch a new all-time high after giving two consecutive buy signals. It then showed some price consolidation with a pullback, offering a more opportune entry point. Exposure may be considered in the $260s to low $280s. Our initial stop will be positioned at $216, which would violate multiple support levels and move the stock to a negative trend. The bullish price objective of $364 will serve as our price objective.

 
                        25                                  
276.00                                                 X       276.00
272.00                         X                       X O     272.00
268.00                         X O                     7 O     268.00
264.00                         X O                     X O     264.00
260.00                         2 O                     X       260.00
256.00                     C   X O             X   6   X     Mid 256.00
252.00                     X O X 3             X O X O X       252.00
248.00                     X O X O             X O X O X       248.00
244.00                     B O X O             X O   O         244.00
240.00                     X 1   O             X               240.00
236.00                     A     O X           X               236.00
232.00                     X     O X O 4       X               232.00
228.00             X       X     O X O X O     5             Bot 228.00
224.00             X O     X     O X O X O     X               224.00
220.00             7 O X   X     O   O   O     X             220.00
216.00             X O X O X             O X   X             216.00
212.00 X           X O X O X             O X O X             212.00
208.00 3 O X   X   X 8 X 9               O X O X             208.00
204.00 X O X O X O 6 O X                 O X O               204.00
200.00 X 4 X O X O X O X                 O X                 200.00
198.00 X O X O X O X O                   O                   198.00
196.00 X O X 5   O                                           196.00
194.00 X O                                                   194.00
192.00 X                                                     192.00
190.00 X                                                     190.00
                        25                                  

 

 

ALK Alaska Air Group Inc ($54.09) - Aerospace Airline - ALK broke a double top at $55 for a second buy signal as shares rallied above $56, clearing resistance that dates to March of this year. This also flips the trend back to positive, which will increase the stock up to a 3 for 5'er. From here, resistance isn't found until the $70 range. Initial support lies at $50 to $51 range, while additional can be found at $46.
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation ($935.15) - Retailing - COST broke a triple bottom at $928 to return the stock to a sell signal. COST maintains a 3 technical attribute rating, but the stock has worked its way into the bottom third of the Retailing sector matrix. From here, support lies at $880, while additional can be found at $800.
EMN Eastman Chemical Company ($75.77) - Chemicals - EMN fell to a sell signal Wednesday after unsuccessfully testing its bearish resistance line. The move adds to an already weak technical picture as EMN is a 0 for 5'er that ranks in the bottom third of the chemicals sector matrix. From here, the next level of support on EMN's chart sits at $75. Earnings are expected on 7/30.
JPM J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. ($297.04) - Banks - JPM shares moved higher today to break a double top at $300 to mark a new all-time high. This 5 for 5'er has been in a positive trend since November 2023 and on an RS buy signal versus the market since March 2024. JPM shares are trading in heavily overbought territory with a weekly overbought/oversold reading of 79%. From here, support is offered at $284.
LLY Eli Lilly and Company ($762.95) - Drugs - LLY reversed down on Tuesday, breaking a quintuple bottom at $760. The 2 for 5'er lost one point after reversing into a negative trend with its latest move. Additionally, the stock ranks at the bottom of the drugs sector matrix. Sell your position here, given the weak technical picture. Initial strong resistance can be seen at $816, with additional resistance at $896.
NVO Novo Nordisk A/S (Denmark) ADR ($53.94) - Drugs - NVO slid down 20% on Tuesday, breaking a double bottom at $64 and reaching an intraday low below $54. The 1 for 5'er lost two points this month after exhibiting both short term and long term strength against the market. Additionally, the stock ranks in the bottom half of the drugs sector matrix. The weekly OBOS indicates that the stock is currently in oversold territory, so wait for the 10-week trading band to normalize before selling your position. Long exposure should be avoided. Initial strong resistance is at $71, with additional resistance at $81.
OKLO Oklo Inc. ($72.82) - Utilities/Electricity - OKLO broke a double top at $78 for a third consecutive buy signal and to mark a new all-time chart high. The stock has improved up to a 5 for 5'er and now ranks 3rd (out of 48) within the Electric Utilities sector matrix. Okay to consider on a pullback to the mid to lower $70 range. Initial support lies at $72, while additional can be found at $59.
ORCL Oracle Corporation ($249.98) - Software - ORCL pushed higher Tuesday to break a double top at $252, notching a sixth consecutive buy signal and new all-time high. This stock has a 5 for 5 TA rating and sits in the top 10% of the software sector RS matrix. While the technical picture is strong, the stock is overbought. Initial support is seen at $236 with further support at $228 and $204.
RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. ($334.43) - Leisure - RCL reversed into Os and broke a double bottom at $336 to initiate a shakeout pattern as shares fell to $324. The stock continues to maintain a 5 technical attribute rating and ranks within the top decile of the Leisure sector matrix. From here, the action point for the shakeout pattern would be upon a reversal back into Xs at $336, while the pattern would be complete upon a triple top break at $356. Support current resides at prior resistance in the upper $270 range.
UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. ($90.84) - Transports/Non Air - UPS posted its first sell signal since April, continuing its long-term negative trend with the formation of a spread quintuple bottom that has broken through three levels of support. This breakdown reinforces the bearish technical picture and suggests continued weakness ahead.

 

Daily Option Ideas for July 29, 2025

Calls
New Recommendations
Name Option Symbol Action Stop Loss
Phillips 66 - $128.13 O: 25J125.00D17 Buy the October 125.00 calls at 8.80 116.00
Follow Ups
Name Option Action
Tractor Supply Company ( TSCO) Sep. 52.00 Calls Stopped at 6.30 (CP: 5.70)
Tapestry Inc. ( TPR) Aug. 82.50 Calls Stopped at 25.80 (CP: 25.10)
Apple Inc. ( AAPL) Oct. 210.00 Calls Stopped at 12.35 (CP: 12.10)
Marriott International, Inc. ( MAR) Sep. 270.00 Calls Stopped at 13.90 (CP: 13.10)
Dell Technologies Inc Class C ( DELL) Sep. 130.00 Calls Raise the option stop loss to 9.30 (CP: 11.30)
Texas Instruments Incorporated ( TXN) Sep. 185.00 Calls Initiate an option stop loss of 8.75 (CP: 10.75)
Puts
New Recommendations
Name Option Symbol Action Stop Loss
McCormick & Company, Incorporated - $72.72 O: 25X75.00D19 Buy the December 75.00 puts at 5.10 79.00
Follow Up
Name Option Action
Pinterest, Inc. Class A ( PINS) Sep. 34.00 Puts Stopped at 39.00 (CP: 38.23)
Enphase Energy Inc ( ENPH) Sep. 40.00 Puts Raise the option stop loss to 5.20 (CP: 7.20)
United Parcel Service, Inc. ( UPS) Oct. 100.00 Puts Initiate an option stop loss of 8.90 (CP: 10.90)
Carmax Group ( KMX) Sep. 65.00 Puts Raise the option stop loss to 4.70 (CP: 6.70)
Novo Nordisk A/S (Denmark) ADR ( NVO) Sep. 65.00 Puts Initiate an option stop loss of 9.90 (CP: 11.90)
Covered Writes
New Recommendations
Name Option Sym. Call to Sell Call Price Investment for 500 Shares Annual Called Rtn. Annual Static Rtn. Downside Protection
Newmont Corp $ 63.66 O: 25J65.00D17 Oct. 65.00 3.60 $ 30,431.95 26.22% 21.93% 4.59%
Still Recommended
Name Action
Hims & Hers Health Inc. ( HIMS) - 58.68 Sell the September 55.00 Calls.
Fortinet Inc. ( FTNT) - 104.88 Sell the September 105.00 Calls.
IonQ Inc. ( IONQ) - 42.34 Sell the October 42.00 Calls.
MARA Holdings Inc. ( MARA) - 17.16 Sell the December 18.00 Calls.
Palantir Technologies Inc. Class A ( PLTR) - 157.88 Sell the August 145.00 Calls.
Airbnb, Inc. Class A ( ABNB) - 142.16 Sell the September 140.00 Calls.
Expedia Group Inc. ( EXPE) - 187.16 Sell the August 185.00 Calls.
Dollar General Corp. ( DG) - 105.81 Sell the September 110.00 Calls.
General Motors ( GM) - 53.45 Sell the December 55.00 Calls.
NetApp, Inc. ( NTAP) - 106.91 Sell the December 110.00 Calls.
The Following Covered Write are no longer recommended
Name Covered Write
Arista Networks Inc ( ANET - 117.55 ) September 110.00 covered write.
Uber Technologies, Inc. ( UBER - 90.60 ) September 92.50 covered write.
Southwest Airlines Co. ( LUV - 32.52 ) November 35.00 covered write.

 

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