Below are highlights from the NDW Morning Update Video for the morning of 9/16. Access the video on the NDW Morning Update Video page. 

• Equity futures are up modestly this morning after being down across the board yesterday. The Nasdaq led the way to the downside, falling 78 bps while the S&P 500 was down 45 bps.
• Crude oil was up more than 4% yesterday and gave a third consecutive buy signal when it broke a double top at $105. Crude is now trading in heavily overbought territory with a weekly OBOS reading approaching 95%.
•  Yesterday’s research focused on a divergence in indicators—participation indicators like the Ten Week for the S&P 500 (^TWNYSE) and the NYSE High Low Index (^NYSEHILO) have fallen to the 20s and 30s. Meanwhile, the Core Percentile Rank remains at 99%, meaning that the S&P 500 group is out scoring 99% of the groups in the Asset Class Group Scores. Such divergences have sometimes preceded S&P 500 corrections.
•  The US Treasury 10-year Yield Index (TNX) has crossed hit 5% for the first time since 2007 as inflation concerns have driven expectations for rate increases, putting upward pressure on the long end of the yield curve.
• The Fed will wrap up its September meeting today and announce its rate decision this afternoon. The market is pricing in a better than 90% chance that the Fed will increase the federal funds rate by 25 bps at this meeting. And a better than 75% chance of at least one more rate hike by the end of the year.
• The Fed will release an updated statement of economic projections which may have a significant impact on rate expectations.

We now have just two weeks left in our model competition, which will end with the close of trading on September 30. While the model returns have changed since we last updated our leaderboard, the teams leading the competition have remained largely the same. At this point, only one model shows a positive cumulative return for the competition period and enjoys a wide lead over the second place competitor.

The return back from the summer brings with it renewed interest from clients as they come back from the beach. The near of the end of Q3 and start of Q4 also brings with it a logical place to “pick the weeds” within your overall market strategy. With that said, we will take today’s feature to update our Dow Technical Attribute Study, giving you ammo to talk about what has changed (and more importantly, what hasn’t) as you await the opening of Q4.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone through many changes over the years, both in the constituents of the index itself and in its relevance as a main market benchmark. In terms of recent changes, both Amazon (AMZN) and NVIDIA (NVDA) were added to the .DJIA within the last few years. Despite these recent more tech focused additions, .DJIA has still struggled to keep up with other major benchmarks. Since 1/1/2023, .DJIA has underperformed SPX & NDX by ~40% and ~107% respectively. Remember, the Dow Jones is a price weighted index, meaning stocks with higher share prices have a greater influence on the index's value. This difference in weighting methodology means that names like GS & CAT have a larger impact on overall movement than the likes of NVDA or AAPL… for better or for worse. The overall technical picture remains quite strong for the Dow Jones as of 9/16, with the name sitting on a string of six consecutive buy signals on its default chart and having pulled back meaningfully towards the middle of its trading band. The absolute picture is one thing, but the relative underperformance mentioned previously is important to avoid, especially if we want those client conversations to go well.

Regardless, there are fundamental analysts that rate all 30 Dow stocks as a "buy," "overweight," or "hold." While this subjective system is one of the limitations to using traditional fundamental research, it does provide advisors with an opportunity to differentiate themselves using a logical, organized, sell discipline based upon something grounded in supply and demand like our Technical Attribute ratings.

Higher equals better in this rating system. If a stock has all 5 of these attributes in its favor, it is considered a technically strong stock. On the other end of the spectrum, stocks with a technical attribute rating of 0 are considered the weakest of names. As a result, they tend to carry more risk and are often market laggards. This is not to say such stocks can't rise, but our odds of outperformance are much narrower with low attribute names (0, 1, and 2) versus high attribute names (3, 4, and 5). Our general rule of thumb is that a Technical Attribute rating of 3 or higher will increase the odds of success. From an implementation standpoint, using Technical Attributes to evaluate existing portfolios, especially those portfolios being transferred over to you, is one straightforward way to add value.

Reviewing the Stocks in the Dow by Technical Attributes

To put some numbers to this rating system, let's look at a Technical Attribute study using the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We update this periodically in the Daily Equity Report, as it allows us to illustrate the benefit of implementing Technical Attributes into your business using a group of companies familiar to us all. We begin by separating the 30 components of the Dow into two categories: "weak attribute" stocks (0, 1, and 2) and "strong attribute" stocks (3, 4, and 5). The objective is two-fold. First, we want to show how each component has done versus the average stock, as represented by the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEWI). Secondly, we hope to show that using the technical attribute system helps capture the important longer-term trends.

The results of the study convey several relevant pieces of information. For instance, not ALL weak attribute stocks underperform, and not ALL high attribute stocks outperform. We would consider this to be a positive, as every time we see a market process that boasts a 100% success rate, we inherently get skeptical. While the TA rating system may not work every time, it does work over time, highlighting stocks that are market leaders and avoiding stocks that are laggards.

This can be seen in the averages from the tables below. There are currently 19 stocks in the Dow with strong TA ratings (3 or higher) as of 9/15/2026, 3 more than the count from our last update at the beginning of the summer. The average length of time the Technical Attribute Rating has been "strong" for these 19 stocks is 496 days. The average outperformance for those 19 names versus the S&P Equal Weighted Index since becoming strong attribute names is over 45%, excluding dividends. Only three of these names have underperformed SPXEWI during their time in the high attribute territory,  NVDA, AMGN, & AMZN. Note that all of these names moved back into “high attribute territory” over the last few months, and their overall underperformance has been relatively narrow. AMZN has been the worst relative performer, lagging behind SPXEWI by just over 10%. The average outperformance for those names that have been high attributes for over a year (AAPL, AXP, CAT, GS, TRV, JPM, & WMT) is over 106%, highlighting the importance of holding onto established winners over time. More recent movers (since our last update in June) are highlighted in each table below, helping draw attention to those stocks that have gained/lost favor.

On the other hand, the remaining 11 stocks in the Dow are categorized as weak attribute names (2 or lower), and on average, these stocks have been technically weak for 531 days. Once a stock falls below the threshold of 3 positive attributes, this condition of lethargy can persist for an extended period. The average underperformance of these stocks since becoming weak attribute names is -13.10%, illustrating the importance of watching the Technical Attribute pictures for stocks that you own or manage over time. When observing just those names that have been low attributes for over 1 year (HD, HON, SHW) that underperformance grows to over 18.50%. Just like our positive attribute table, there are certainly instances where low attribute stocks can outperform the benchmark. If this outperformance persists, these stocks can (and have) become high RS names fit for investment.

This screening process can be both a crucial aspect of your portfolio management strategy and an important part of your story with clients and prospects. The "story," in this case, is not "being right all the time." Instead, it is adding a level of analysis to your process that is not afraid to say "sell" when a holding indicates that it has likely gone into hibernation… while more fundamental analysts will maintain their “buy” or “hold” rating far longer than it would be rational. While these ratings may miss a few modest periods of outperformance or underperformance, it is self-correcting by nature, helping you to stick with the important trends in the market.

Each week the analysts at NDW review and comment on all major asset classes in the global markets. Shown below is the summary or snapshot of the primary technical indicators we follow for multiple areas. Should there be changes mid-week we will certainly bring these to your attention via the report.

Remember, these are technical comments only. Just as you must be aware of fundamental data for the stocks we recommend based on technical criteria in the report, so too must you be aware of important data regarding delivery, market moving government releases, and other factors that may influence commodity pricing. We try to limit our technical comments to the most actively traded contracts in advance of delivery, but some contracts trade actively right up to delivery while others taper off well in advance. Be sure you check your dates before trading these contracts. For questions regarding this section or additional coverage of commodities email james.west@nasdaq.com.

Data represented in the table below is through 9/15/26:

Portfolio View - Commodity Indices

Cryptocurrency Update

Cryptocurrency Video (4:09)

The option suggestions featured here are pulled from the NDW Options Ideas tool. These are just a sample of the ideas that can be found there. The Options Idea tool contains numerous additional income and speculative plays. It also offers relative strength-based screens targeting the highest (and lowest) relative strength stocks and ETFs that have recently moved counter to their longer-term trend. To access or subscribe to the Options Ideas tool, click here.

Call

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Dec 18 $345 Call

Put

AppLovin Corp. Class A (APP) Dec 18 $330 Put

Income

Visa Inc. (V) Oct 16 $175 Short Put