Retail giants Nike and Lululemon have struggled over the past few years. We discuss these laggards and highlight a few points of strength in today's article
Some would argue that America’s pastime is baseball. Some might point out that football might have more of an impact on everyday society. Others less inclined with sports might *tastefully* point out that eating is perhaps what Americans are most known for around the world. All that said, perhaps the largest global impact us Americans bring to the table is our sheer willingness to purchase things. It is projected that the US consumer spends over double that of the next highest country (China) per year. Throughout the last few years, the resilience of the US consumer has been quoted several times to prop up weaker job numbers, higher inflation data, or really just any other less-than-stellar economic print. Point being, the average American loves to buy things at a rate that is simply unrivaled by other corners of the globe.
The naive might incorrectly assume that unlimited spending equals unlimited profit and a continuously favorable landscape for these firms. However, that often isn’t the case - competition is typically intensely stiff, and consistently changing consumer tastes can make it difficult for any one company to stay at the top of the heap for any extended amount of time. Those of you who want exposure to this market segment are probably familiar with ETF XRT, which holds exposure to a variety of retail focused firms (not just apparel, more on that area specifically later). Having gone virtually nowhere over the last 5 years, XRT holds a suboptimal 2.22 fund score, over 1.5 points behind the average US-based fund. While it does come off a string of buy signals and remains in an overall positive trend, the lack of continued upside since 2021 has highlighted relative weakness against other core benchmarks. A side note, this chart highlights the importance of finding assets that exhibit positive relative strength. Things can look productive in a vacuum (positive trend, buy signals, etc.) but fail to keep up with your client’s major benchmarks. Since its highs in late 2021, XRT has shed 17% while the broad SPX has advanced 63% over that same time frame. Those of you just looking at an absolute technical picture would face difficult client conversations sitting on the cusp of Q4 2026.
Perhaps the most iconic of the US retail brands is Nike, fashioning the iconic “Just Do It” slogan that inspired generations to chase their own version of greatness across the sports world (for fun, check out the reported first use of the slogan in a commercial here.) Unfortunately, the sneaker and athleisure giant have not listened to their own advice as the name has fallen from grace from its highs in late 2021. A repeated highlight in our “failed breakout” series, NKE has failed to put together any meaningful upside over the last half decade as it has lost nearly 80% of its value. It hasn’t earned more than a 3/5 (hold) attribute at any point since January of 2022, having found itself in sell or strong sell territory for the majority of that time since that point. Lululemon (LULU) has had a similar fall from grace over the last few years, having declined roughly 80% off its highs from December of 2023. The athleisure giant has faced substantial competition as other retail apparel names have picked up their own “professional comfort” lines. This was highlighted as recently as last week as the 0/5’er fell as much as 20% on poor earnings/guidance, printing new 2026 lows as the name failed a test of its bearish resistance line.
Most of the retailing space has poor technical scores, evidenced by the fact that only 37% of the NDW retailing matrix holds TA scores above 3. That said, that doesn’t mean that there isn’t value that we can look to add by utilizing different tools around the platform. By looking at this same retailing matrix, we can focus on those highly-ranked positions as possible points of interest within the sector. There are several (ANF, CHEF, TBBB, LQDT, BBY) that could be highlights, but perhaps the most deserving of a shoutout is Target (TGT). While only earning 3/5 technical attribute points as of the time of this writing, TGT has picked up just over 66% so far this year as it has pushed back to levels not seen since 2024. While intense downside action over the last few years leaves the retailing giant well off its highs from late 2021, the near-term picture has been overwhelmingly constructive. Having pulled back out of heavily overbought territory on its default chart, it isn’t out of the question to suggest that the name could get back up to levels around the $180’s as we move into Q4. As always keep an eye on the charts for notable shifts in strength if things do turn sour for this rebound.
