Navigating clients to their future goals is paramount as an advisor. Today, we provide analysis on what investors can expect depending on how long they invest.
During times of volatility, being able to hold clients’ hands is one of the most crucial aspects of being an advisor. Everyone loves to make money, but nobody likes the risks associated with it. This year has been no stranger to sharp movement. From the end of February to March 30th, the market fell 7.7%, on a total return basis, as geopolitical conflict intensified. That move was worse than 97% of months, placing us in highly abnormal territory that caused panic among many investors.
In these situations, it’s important that clients don’t lose sight of the bigger picture. Despite the market uncertainty at that time, the dip may not have meaningfully changed many clients' ability to meet future goals. In contrast, getting out of the market at the wrong times can be even more detrimental, potentially causing investors to miss out on the growth required to meet long-term objectives. In this instance, the S&P 500 rose 13.7% over the very next one-month span from March 31st through April 30th. Uncertainty is inherent in investing, but by understanding the range of possible outcomes, we can do a better job of navigating investors through that uncertainty as it inevitably arises.
While history may not repeat itself, it often rhymes, which means it can serve as a guide during times of uncertainty. To help contextualize what to expect, we looked at the total return of the S&P 500 since 1950 based on an investor’s time horizon. Oftentimes, investors have a target return needed by a certain point. The table below shows the probability of exceeding a return objective depending on the amount of time invested in the S&P 500. For example, an investor can expect a 75% chance of doubling their money or more after 10 years, while there is a 97% chance that the S&P 500 will be positive during a decade-long span. Looking further out, there has been a 100% historical chance that an investor would at least double their money over a 20-year span. While there is no such thing as a guarantee when it comes to market action, historical data points to one main theme: the longer you are in the market, the “easier” it is to hit important return milestones and the less significant downside volatility is in play.
To further contextualize things, the second table above gives the range of returns one can expect at different time horizons. Time in the market is by far the most important factor for performance given the increase in potential upside and decrease in downside after the first two years. The potential for upside over long horizons is magnified by the compounding of returns. Holding the market averaged a median 10-year gain of 186% while those able to hold on for 30 years saw a median gain ten times that of 1985%.
Another benefit of the longer horizon is the reduction in downside. Investors who bought the S&P 500 for any 5-year period since 1950 would have seen a maximum loss of -34.8%. Meanwhile, the minimum return for 15-year investors was positive 66%, highlighting the luxury that time offers. The cyclical nature of the market means that periods of downturn are more likely to be followed by bull markets, and vice versa. Those fluctuations cancel each other out enough to narrow the spread of returns over time.
The narrowing of outcomes can be visualized by looking at the S&P 500’s range of annualized returns across different time horizons. Over short periods, the range of annualized returns is extremely large, with the difference between the 90th and 10th percentile one-year returns being 42.5%. Meanwhile, 30-year periods only have a 2.9% difference in annualized returns between the 90th and 10th percentile outcomes. In general, the more time one spends invested in the market, the less their portfolio will deviate from expectations. Similar to the previous tables, the 15-year mark is when returns have historically always been positive, as the minimum annualized return was 3.43%. Some portfolio losses are inevitable for investors, but time heals all wounds for those able to hold on long enough.
One point to note is that every market environment is different, meaning that these ranges and probabilities may not always hold true. Prior to 2020, the S&P 500 had never lost more than 30% in a one month period, but those invested in early March 2020 were in for a rude awakening after losing 34% as Covid’s grip tightened across markets. However, previous environments can help at least give an indication as to whether investors are on track to meet their future financial goals. And when it comes to achieving financial goals, nothing is more valuable than the time spent invested.
