Daily Equity & Market Analysis
Published: Apr 28, 2026
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Daily Summary

RS Leadership within Small Caps

Given the performance of small caps, we will take a look under the hood at recent leadership from a sector standpoint through a relative strength lens.

Deep Dive on Covered Call Strategies

Own the probable, sell the improbable.

Weekly Video

Weekly Rundown Video – April 22, 2026

Weekly rundown with NDW analyst team covering all major asset classes.

Weekly rundown with NDW analyst team covering all major asset classes.

Though U.S. indices kicked off the week mixed, small caps by way of the Russell 2000 (RUT) were among those to remain positive (albeit very slightly) and continuing positive action from last week. As discussed in Friday’s feature in the Daily Equity Report, small caps have been among, if not the best performing of the size groups during 2026. While not handily outpacing its large and mid-cap counterparts, small caps have likely been a part of client portfolios. Given the performance of small caps, we will take a look under the hood at recent leadership from a sector standpoint through a relative strength lens.

The relative strength matrix below compares price action of the nine Invesco small cap sector ETFs against each other in order to identify which sector funds are showing leadership, while also showing what sectors should be avoided. Given the action seen within the broader energy sector to kick off 2026, its no surprise to see the small cap energy matrix rankings mirror the broader NDW DALI Sector Rankings with energy as the top sector from a long-term leadership perspective. With the technology and industrials ETFs ranking in second and third, the small cap matrix similar mirrors DALI from a long-term RS perspective. When examining the short-term RS (column of Xs), technology and industrials exhibit superior near-term relative strength against the majority of the other ETFs within the matrix, while energy currently maintains the lowest X ranking with zero RS charts in a column of Xs when comparing to other small cap sector ETFs in the Invesco lineup.

Given the current RS picture among the small cap sectors, below highlights the current technical characteristics of the three aforementioned sector representatives.

Invesco S&P Small Cap Energy ETF (PSCE) – PSCE has maintained a positive trend since August 2025 and a buy signal since October of last year. After giving a third buy signal in January, the fund continued higher in February and March, reaching a multi-year high at $63 before pulling back to kick off April. That pullback to kick off April while other sectors have rallied – some significantly – in comparison has provided enough dispersion to lead to the ETF to fall in X ranking within the Invesco Small Cap Sector matrix shown above. Additionally, the market RS chart comparing the ETF to the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEWI) reversed into Os on 4/14, highlighting that near-term laggard stance. Although the near-term RS picture is out of favor for PSCE, the long-term trend picture continues to maintain. Last week’s action brought the chart back to a column of Xs, while yesterday’s trading brought the chart above $62 and just one box below the March rally high. Near-term support currently lies at $56, while the bullish support line sits at $43.50 on the default chart.

Invesco S&P Small Cap Information Technology ETF (PSCT) – PSCT has maintained a positive trend since May 2025 and returned to a buy signal earlier this month. The past couple of weeks’ worth of trading has carried the fund higher, leading to a new all-time chart high at $74 during Friday’s (4/24) trading. As highlighted above, the recent rally within technology has brought near-term RS to favor the sector, again matching the superior long-term RS that has been sustained since the late stages of 2025. This week’s trading has seen the fund pullback slightly and it is now on the threshold of actionable territory at $70, while a further pullback to the upper $60s would constitute healthy chart action. From here, prior resistance in the mid $60s may be seen as initial support, while additional support resides in the $57 to $58 range.

Invesco S&P Small Cap Industrials ETF (PSCI) – PSCI has maintained a positive trend since July 2025 and returned to a buy signal earlier this month. Action in recent weeks has witnessed the fund rally through the $160s and above $172 on the chart, just a few boxes below the all-time chart high from February at $178. PSCI has maintained superior long-term relative strength against the market, as defined by the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEWI), since late 2023 and positive near-term RS since August of last year. Among the three small cap sector funds discussed, PSCI is the one that could be considered at its current chart position or on a pullback to the lower $160s. Initial support lies at $150, while additional resides at $140.

A possible solution for those pondering how to best navigate the small cap space is the Invesco Small Cap Sector Model (POWERSMALL), which seeks to maintain exposure to the top three sectors within the nine funds shown in the matrix above and currently holds the three ETFs discussed above. Year-to-date, the Invesco Small Cap Sector Model has gained 22% through Monday’s (4/27) close and has outperformed the Russell 2000 (RUT) by more than 10%.

There has been a massive proliferation of option-related ETFs over the last several years. Income, hedged equity, buffers, and defined outcome ETFs continue to see greater popularity as they offer more elegant solutions to common portfolio needs than the equity/fixed income split that became so common. Focusing on option income ETFs, products have become a bit more elevated now that active management within ETFs is allowed. However, they still tend to mostly focus on maximizing income distributed back to investors by writing at-the-money calls. The active management component has helped in how these positions are rolled and more thoughtful strike selection. Nonetheless, most covered call products still focus on producing most of their total returns from the monthly options they sell. Fortunately, Nasdaq acquired Volos, a company that has institutional grade back testing capabilities of options strategies. Starting with a basic comparison between holding SPY and an at-the-money covered call strategy on SPY (SPY Covered Call ATM), we can clearly see the cost of a covered call strategy over the last 21 years.

When we dig further into the two strategies, annualized returns for SPY vs SPY Covered Call ATM are 11.18% and 7.16%, respectively. Some may say, of course the returns are worse for the covered call strategy, but the volatility is lower. That is true. Annual volatility for SPY Covered Call ATM is 13.35% and its max drawdown is -36.62% compared to annual volatility for SPY of 19.09% and a max drawdown of -55.20%. Finally, looking at return/risk, SPY is better than the SPY Covered Call ATM with a return/risk of 0.59 vs 0.54. So, the consistent monthly income and lower volatility is not enough for the SPY Covered Call ATM strategy to outperform SPY on a risk-adjusted basis. This gets back to the key drawback of covered call strategies; they are forgoing the right tail of the distribution of market returns for income. Sometimes, this is a great trade, but it is particularly disastrous coming off market bottoms. For example, in 2020 the SPY Covered Call ATM strategy was flat while SPY gained just over 18%. The 2020 difference in max drawdown was only 5%. While an extreme example, 2020 highlights the risks going with an at-the-money covered call strategy. As it turns out, we can mitigate these risks by selling out-of-the-money (OTM) options. The table below contains the results of covered call strategies with targeting varying levels of how far out-of-the-money to sell a call each month.

All the covered call strategies lag the market if just looking at cumulative returns, but three strategies have higher return/risk metrics than SPY. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the strategies with the highest return/risk metrics sold the furthest out-of-the-money options. While their median monthly incomes are lower than the SPY Covered Call ATM strategy, they are far better at maximizing the benefits of writing calls on a portfolio basis. One of the key reasons for this is the ability of the further OTM strategies to participate in most of the market’s return while generating meaningful option income in more volatile markets and thus lowering volatility more during those periods. For example, the SPY Covered Call 4% OTM strategy only produced a median monthly income of 0.21% over the entire back test period, but its 2022 yearly option income was 11.05%. Still, it is very difficult for a consistent call writing strategy to outperform the market itself on a total return basis in the long run, but they can be beneficial to risk-adjusted returns. The benefit seems to be concentrated in writing out-of-the-money calls so the strategy can participate in most of the market’s return. We’ll finish with a common saying regarding options, “Own the probable, sell the improbable.”

Market Distribution Table The Distribution Report below places Major Market ETFs and Indices into a bell curve style table based upon their current location on their 10-week trading band.

The middle of the bell curve represents areas of the market that are "normally" distributed, with the far right being 100% overbought on a weekly distribution and the far left being 100% oversold on a weekly distribution.

The weekly distribution ranges are calculated at the end of each week, while the placement within that range will fluctuate during the week. In addition to information regarding the statistical distribution of these market indexes, a symbol that is in UPPER CASE indicates that the RS chart is on a Buy Signal. If the symbol is dark Green then the stock is on a Point & Figure buy signal, and if the symbol is bright Red then it is on a Point & Figure sell signal.

 

Average Level

28.44

< - -100 -100 - -80 -80 - -60 -60 - -40 -40 - -20 -20 - 0 0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 100 - >
                       
                 
Buy signaliwm
   
         
Sell signalagg
 
Buy signalrsp
 
Buy signalijr
   
         
Sell signallqd
 
Buy signalhyg
Buy signalEEM
Buy signalSPY
   
       
Buy signaltlt
Sell signaldx/y
 
Buy signalVOOV
Buy signalIJH
Buy signalGCC
   
       
Sell signalief
Buy signalshy
Buy signalefa
Buy signalicf
Buy signalUSO
Sell signalXLG
Buy signalONEQ
 
       
Buy signalgld
Buy signaldvy
Buy signalfxe
Sell signaldia
Buy signalGSG
Buy signalVOOG
Buy signalQQQ
 
< - -100 -100 - -80 -80 - -60 -60 - -40 -40 - -20 -20 - 0 0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 100 - >

 

AGG iShares US Core Bond ETF
USO United States Oil Fund
DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF
DVY iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index ETF
DX/Y NYCE U.S.Dollar Index Spot
EFA iShares MSCI EAFE ETF
FXE Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust
GLD SPDR Gold Trust
GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust
HYG iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF
ICF iShares Cohen & Steers Realty ETF
IEF iShares Barclays 7-10 Yr. Tres. Bond ETF
LQD iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corp. Bond ETF
IJH iShares S&P 400 MidCap Index Fund
ONEQ Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Track
QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust
RSP Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF
IWM iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF
SHY iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Tres. Bond ETF
IJR iShares S&P 600 SmallCap Index Fund
SPY SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF Trust
TLT iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
GCC WisdomTree Continuous Commodity Index Fund
VOOG Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF
VOOV Vanguard S&P 500 Value ETF
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
XLG Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF
   

 

Long Ideas

Symbol Company Sector Current Price Action Price Target Stop Notes
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation Retailing $998.01 944-1050s 1296 832 4 TA rating, top 33% of retail sector matrix, LT mkt RS buy, LT pos trend, consec buy signals
SPG Simon Property Group, Inc. Real Estate $201.29 190s - low 200s 246 172 5 for 5'er, top 20% of REAL sector matrix, LT pos peer & mkt RS, bearish signal reversal, 4.3% yield, Earn. 5/11
ASO Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. Retailing $56.52 hi 50s- low 60s 73 49 4 for 5'er, top third of RETA sector matrix, triple top, pos trend flip
DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. Restaurants $198.70 190s - low 200s 226 168 4 for 5'er, LT pos peer & mkt RS, pos trend flip, triple top, 3% yield
TJX The TJX Companies, Inc. Retailing $157.48 150s - 160s 186 136 5 for 5'er. top third of RETA sector matrix, LR pos peer & mkt RS, triple top, Earn. 5/20
FDX FedEx Corporation Aerospace Airline $387.89 mid 370s - lo 410s 464 340 4 TA rating, top 20% of AERO sector RS matrix, LT RS buy, pos trend
IBKR Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Wall Street $77.59 70s 100 73 5 for 5'er, top 20% of WALL sector matrix, LT pos peer & mkt RS, buy on pullback
BPOP Popular, Inc. Banks $150.62 hi 130s - low 150s 200 120 5 for 5'er, 18 of 174 in favored BANK sector matrix, LT pos peer & mkt RS, triple top, good R-R, 2% yield
HAS Hasbro, Inc. Leisure $94.69 lo-hi 90s 122 79 5 TA rating, top 33% of LEIS sector matrix, LT pos trend, pos wkly mom, Earn. 5/20

Short Ideas

Symbol Company Sector Current Price Action Price Target Stop Notes
CPRT Copart Incorporated Autos and Parts $33.19 hi 30s 28 42 1 TA rating, bottom 50% of AUTO sector matrix, NT and mkt RS sell last month, consec sell signals,Earn. 5/21
DT Dynatrace, Inc. Software $35.61 mid-30s 23 41 0 TA rating, bottom half of software sector matrix, LT neg trend, favorable reward-risk, Earn. 5/13

Removed Ideas

Symbol Company Sector Current Price Action Price Target Stop Notes
DE Deere & Company Machinery and Tools $567.69     512 Moved to a sell signal. Maintain stop at $512.

Follow-Up Comments

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NDW Spotlight Stock

 

HAS Hasbro, Inc. ($95.54) R - Leisure - HAS has a 5 for 5 TA rating and sits in the top third of the leisure sector matrix. The stock moved back to a buy signal with a spread quadruple top break last week, highlighting the near-term improvement. Weekly momentum also recently flipped positive, suggesting the potential for further upside from here. The weight of the technical evidence is favorable and improving. Exposure may be considered in the $90s. Our initial stop will be positioned at $79, which would move the stock to a negative trend and violate multiple support levels. The bullish price objective of $122 will serve as our upside target. Note that earnings are expected on 5/20.

 
          26                                                
106.00                 X                                       106.00
104.00                 X O                                     104.00
102.00                 X O                                     102.00
100.00                 X O X                                   100.00
99.00                 X O X O                         X       99.00
98.00                 X O X O X   X               X   X O     98.00
97.00             X   X O   3 X O X O             X O X O     97.00
96.00             X O X     O X O X O             X O X O     96.00
95.00             X O X     O   O X O             X O X O     95.00
94.00             X O           O X O X   X   X   X O X     Mid 94.00
93.00             X             O X O X O X O X O X O X       93.00
92.00             X             O   O X O X O X O X O X       92.00
91.00             2                 O   O X 4 X O   O X       91.00
90.00             X                     O X O X     O X       90.00
89.00         X   X                     O X O X     O X     89.00
88.00         X O X                     O   O       O       88.00
87.00         X O X                                         87.00
86.00         X O X                                         86.00
85.00     X   X O                                           85.00
84.00     X O X                                             84.00
83.00 X   X O 1                                             83.00
82.00 X O X O X                                             82.00
81.00 X O X O X                                             81.00
80.00 X C   O                                               80.00
79.00 X                                                   Bot 79.00
78.00 X                                                     78.00
77.00 X                                                     77.00
76.00 X                                                     76.00
          26                                                

 

 

CCEP Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC ($96.94) - Food Beverages/Soap - CCEP shares broke a triple top at $100 for its second consecutive buy signal. The 4 for 5'er moved back to a positive trend in February and is now technically actionable at current levels. Initial support lies at $96 with the bullish support line also at $91.
CHD Church & Dwight Company ($96.30) - Household Goods - Shares of CHD broke a double top at $98 to move back to a buy signal. The stock has put together a strong few months, moving back to a positive trend and regaining near-term relative strength, bringing it up to buy territory as a solid 4 for 5'er. Investors could buy here given it's trading in actionable territory. Initial support lies at $92.
CVS CVS Health Corp. ($80.85) - Retailing - CVS broke a double top at $80 to return to a buy signal as shares rallied to $81, matching the March rally high. The break also penetrates the bearish resistance line, which will increase the stock to a 3 for 5'er trading in a positive trend. CVS continues to maintain positive near-term RS against the market and peer group and currently ranks within the top half of the Retailing sector matrix while maintaining a yield north of 3%. Beyond current resistance additional lies in the mid $80s dating to October of last year. Initial support lies at $75, while additional can be found at $72, the bullish support line, and $70.
GOLF Acushnet Holdings Corp ($97.06) - Leisure - GOLF broke a double bottom at $96 to return to a sell signal after rallying to near highs on 4/17. The move also violates the bullish support line, which will drop the stock down to a 4 for 5'er with superior positive near and long-term relative strength against the market and its peer group. Support lies at current levels, while additional can be found in the lower $90s and upper $80s.
KO The Coca-Cola Company ($78.29) - Food Beverages/Soap - Shares of KO are putting together a strong start to 2026, and it recently broke a double top at $79 for its third consecutive buy signal. The 3 for 5'er moved back to a positive trend in November and regained long-term peer relative strength in March. That said, the stock still lacks market relative strength, keeping it in hold territory for the time being. Initial support lies at $75 with the bullish support line at $72.
OKE ONEOK, Inc. ($89.94) - Oil Service - After giving three consecutive sell signals, OKE returned to a buy signal Tuesday when it completed a bearish signal reversal at $89 and continued higher to $90, where it now sits against its bearish resistance line. The outlook for OKE remains unfavorable despite Tuesday's move as the stock is a 2 for 5'er and ranks in the bottom half of the oil service sector matrix. From here, support its at $82.
RDDT Reddit, Inc. Class A ($147.93) - Internet - RDDT gave a second consecutive sell signal Tuesday at $150 before falling to $148 intraday. This 1 for 5'er moved to a negative trend in January and sits in the bottom decile of the Top 500 Large Cap TR matrix. The technical picture is weak and deteriorating further. Long exposure should be avoided. Further support can be seen at $136 while overhead resistance can be seen at $162.
RJF Raymond James Financial Inc ($156.61) - Wall Street - RJF shares moved higher today to break a double top at $158 to mark its second consecutive buy signal and enter a positive trend. This 4 for 5'er has been on an RS buy signal versus the market since October 2021. RJF shares are trading in actionable territory with a weekly overbought/oversold reading of 21%. Resistance sits close by at $160 with support at $150.

 

Daily Option Ideas for April 28, 2026

Calls
New Recommendations
Name Option Symbol Action Stop Loss
Walmart Inc. - $126.91 O: 26G125.00D17 Buy the July 125.00 calls at 8.70 118.00
Follow Ups
Name Option Action
AFLAC Incorporated ( AFL) May. 110.00 Calls Raise the option stop loss to 4.80 (CP: 6.80)
Cisco Systems, Inc. ( CSCO) Jul. 77.50 Calls Stopped at 11.35 (CP: 10.80)
Puts
New Recommendations
Name Option Symbol Action Stop Loss
Servicenow Inc - $90.68 O: 26S90.00D17 Buy the July 90.00 puts at 8.60 95.00
Follow Up
Name Option Action
No Follow Ups
Covered Writes
New Recommendations
Name Option Sym. Call to Sell Call Price Investment for 500 Shares Annual Called Rtn. Annual Static Rtn. Downside Protection
Halliburton Company $ 40.13 O: 26G41.00D17 Jul. 41.00 2.77 $ 19,172.25 26.76% 27.79% 5.74%
Still Recommended
Name Action
Palantir Technologies Inc. Class A ( PLTR) - 143.10 Sell the July 150.00 Calls.
Alcoa Inc. ( AA) - 67.36 Sell the July 75.00 Calls.
V.F. Corporation ( VFC) - 19.36 Sell the August 22.00 Calls.
Delta Air Lines Inc. ( DAL) - 68.20 Sell the July 72.50 Calls.
Synchrony Financial ( SYF) - 76.75 Sell the September 80.00 Calls.
NetApp, Inc. ( NTAP) - 108.44 Sell the July 110.00 Calls.
The Following Covered Write are no longer recommended
Name Covered Write
No Additions to This Section

 

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