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Bitcoin ($BTC) was intended to serve as a decentralized store of value operating separately from the mainstream financial system. Over the years, this mission has held less and less true, with it now acting as a mostly speculative asset. As such, sentiment is the main driver of the asset’s value, making technical readings one of the few guides to navigate the crypto landscape. With that said, what are the technicals currently saying about the bellwether of the crypto space?
Bitcoin returned above $100k during today’s intraday action for the first time since the start of February. With the movement, Bitcoin should return to a buy signal when its chart updates tonight, ending its streak of two consecutive sell signals. Movement higher has been significant enough to bring it back into a bull market, but it now faces resistance from all-time highs around $108k. While we don’t offer TA scores for individual cryptocurrencies, we can look towards ETFs as a proxy for their strength. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) holds a strong fund score of 5.58, along with a sharply positive score direction of 1.96. However, those evaluating cryptocurrencies have more tools at their disposal than just fund scores.
Moving averages (MAs) are the foundation of several of our technical indicators, but they can also help evaluate individual securities in select cases. The two most common examples look at a security relative to its average price over the last 50 and 200 days. When a security is above either of these averages, it can be a sign of positive sentiment. Historically, Bitcoin trading above its 50d and 200d moving averages has seen it average higher returns. Looking only at the last five years, this trend of outperformance has continued, albeit with worse overall return numbers. While both MAs seem to gauge sentiment, the 50d MA has been a better measure, perhaps due to it being more sensitive to swings in price with its shorter timeframe. Bitcoin moved above both its 50d and 200d MAs in April, serving as another positive signal for the cryptocurrency. In addition to the Bitcoin's absolute picture, we can also evaluate strength through the lens of relative strength matchups.
We’ve previously highlighted the Bitcoin “bogey check” to evaluate if there’s a heighted potential for significant downside. The cryptocurrency failed that test in February, but recent improvements led to Bitcoin reversing into a column of Xs against cash (MNYMKT) to pass once again. Bitcoin has also picked up strength versus the broader market, as it earned near-term strength versus the average S&P 500 stock (SPXEWI). The coin now holds short- and long-term relative strength versus both SPX and SPXEWI. The possibility of significant downside is always present within cryptocurrencies, but recent developments have shed positive light on Bitcoin for those willing to take the risk.